Bitcoin (BTC) continues in consolidation mode, with the market attentive to the cautious message from the Federal Reserve and a possible technical breakout that could define the next major movement.
The Fed cools the appetite for risk
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp (3.50%–3.75%), as expected, but made it clear that future cuts will be limited.
This reduced market expectations and pressured risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
➡️ Result: BTC remains sideways around $92,000, with no clear direction for now.
Geopolitical tension = less risk
The frictions between Russia and Ukraine, combined with recent statements from the U.S., have reinforced a global cautionary environment.
This context continues to limit Bitcoin's bullish momentum in the short term.
Institutions: positive signals, but still timid
Spot BTC ETFs recorded inflows of $237M this week, reversing previous outflows.
Strategy (MSTR) bought 10,624 additional BTC, raising its reserve to 660,624 BTC.
✔️ Institutional demand exists, but it is still not strong enough to drive a sustained rally.
On-chain data: selling pressure decreasing
Less BTC entering exchanges
Less activity from large players
Average deposits falling
👉 If this trend continues, a relief rally towards $99,000 remains possible.
Key technical levels
Supports
$90,000 (psychological)
$85,800 (100-week EMA)
$85,569 (Fibo 78.6%)
Resistances
$94,253 (Fibo 61.8%)
$99,000 (50-week EMA)
$102,000
$112,000
🔑 Key:
A clear breakout of the descending trendline + close above $94,253 could pave the way towards $100K+.
Cycle outlook
Recent research suggests that BTC remains in a modified post-ETF cycle, with mini-cycles of retracement at cost base (~$84,000) and rebounds of ~70%.
📌 Under this model, medium-term targets are located between $138,000 and $148,000, if the pattern repeats.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is accumulating energy between restrictive macroeconomics and positive structural signals.
The market expects a clear catalyst.
➡️ Patience before the breakout.
