Following this template, I will also give a sharp review of the mainstream assets in the capital market for 2025. It will also have five levels: remarkable, top-notch, superior, NPC, and done.
A-shares, up 16% this year; it's the 6th best year since 2000, a rare good year. The downside is the serious structural differentiation; droughts and floods are uneven, making it difficult for retail investors with mean-reversion trading habits to make money. Overall evaluation: top-notch.
ChiNext index, up 49% this year. Concepts like CPO, batteries, components, and communications are all included; it rose from start to finish, beating short sellers and completely reclaiming lost ground from previous years. The champion of bulls. Initially thought to give it a remarkable rating, but there are still experts ahead, so I'll give it a half-remarkable.
Bonds, quite good in previous years, small rise this year. The key point is that last year's wave fully met expectations, leaving no room this year. Short-term bonds yield about 1.5% this year, while some long-term bonds are still losing for the year. Additionally, bonds have been suppressed this year due to good stock performance, with many funds flowing out to change positions. Overall, I'd give it an NPC rating; at least it hasn't dug a big hole for investors.
Futures index, stable performance, with a discount of 7-8% this year, plus an index increase of about 20%, making money without worry. I think it deserves a top-notch rating.
Bitcoin, down 3.6% this year. In past years, it has either surged or plummeted, rarely having single-digit fluctuations. I think mainstream funds entering through ETFs have changed the cycle's volatility to some extent. This year's performance speaks for itself, it's done. Next year, it may still need to rise.
In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 16% this year, ranking 6th since 2000, which is a rare good year. The downside is that there is serious structural differentiation, with uneven drought and flood, making it difficult for retail investors, who have a mean-reversion trading habit, to make money. Overall evaluation: people are better than people.
S&P 500, not much increase this year, only 17%, but the key point is that it also rose 27% and 25% in the previous two years. Historically, it occasionally digs holes, but it never tortures people; it quickly fills them. A long-term bull market lasting over 80 years, always a divine presence among major assets. But objectively assessing this year, it is top-notch.
Nasdaq 100, up 20% this year, marking the third consecutive year of over 20%. Going through Nasdaq does not disappoint any investor; no matter when you enter, it doesn't let you down. Whether you believe it or not, I think next year will be a time for adjustment; no evidence, just a gut feeling. Giving it a top-notch rating this year is reasonable.
Gold, up 55% this year, the fourth consecutive year of a bull market. The flavor is just right, no need for more salt. The best asset that the common people in China can legally and compliantly buy, without a doubt. Some major rules and backgrounds in this world have been shifting in recent years, and buying gold is a choice for ordinary people to combat future uncertainties. It's not just ordinary people; national institutions sometimes think this way too. Truly remarkable.
Silver, up 110% this year, who else! No one! This year, no one can beat it. But you can't recognize it as a better asset just because silver rose significantly in a single year; silver has a small market and large fluctuations. Historically, standing guard at high points requires a long wait. If we set aside speculation and look purely from an asset allocation perspective, its overall cost-effectiveness is not as good as gold's. But by 2025, it will undoubtedly be remarkable.
Depositing in banks this year is a rare investment year, almost all assets available are rising. In such years, depositing in banks is a waste of money; if everyone profits but you don't, that's a loss. It's done.
