OKX market shows that $MERL briefly surged to around 0.44 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 17%. Its market cap has entered the top 100 on CoinMarketCap. Behind what seems to be a strong rebound is actually a trap set by the manipulators taking advantage of low liquidity.
Investors familiar with the MERL market know that this surge is by no means a signal of a trend reversal. Over the past month, MERL has tested the key resistance level near 0.5 USDT three times, each time being ruthlessly suppressed and falling back. The highs are continuously declining, and the rebound cycles are getting shorter; the bearish trend has long been established.
This 17% surge happened precisely during a period of overall low market liquidity, allowing manipulators to move prices with minimal funds. They create a false appearance of active trading volume through wash trading, combined with the hype of 'entering the top 100 by market cap,' precisely targeting the mentality of retail investors who fear missing out and chase after strong trends. This induces off-market funds to blindly bottom-fish and leads on-market trapped positions to abandon stop-losses, essentially paving the way for subsequent sell-offs.
From a technical perspective, the flaws in this rebound are quite evident. During the surge, $MERL displayed a clear 'divergence between volume and price' characteristic—while the price surged, the trading volume did not increase in sync, but rather shrank compared to the previous fluctuation phase, indicating that the rise lacks genuine buying support and is entirely the result of market makers controlling capital.
More importantly, even if it briefly touches 0.44 USDT, it has not broken through the previously repeatedly validated resistance zone, quickly falling back to 0.436 USDT after the surge, further confirming the strong suppression of the resistance level, indicating that the bulls are fundamentally unable to maintain strength, and the technical structure has long shifted from consolidation to a weak downward trend. In addition, the KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram remains negative, with the bears always dominating. The so-called 'breakout rally' is merely a technical illusion created by the market makers.
For the current market, there is only one core operational logic: abandon fantasies, beware of traps, focus on short selling opportunities, and refuse to become a bag holder. Based on resistance levels and technical indicators, two sets of key short selling reference points are provided, and risk control must be ensured:
1. First short selling point: 0.44-0.45 USDT range (previous resistance zone after a surge), stop loss set above 0.46 USDT to avoid extreme market manipulation, target down to 0.38 USDT (recent fluctuation center lower bound);
2. Second short selling point: If the rebound is weak and falls below 0.4 USDT (breaking the short-term support level), you can add to the short position, with a stop loss at 0.42 USDT, targeting the 0.32-0.35 USDT range to capture the core profit space of the downward trend.
Absolutely do not chase highs, regardless of whether the price makes a new high. Until it breaks through the key resistance at 0.5 USDT, all rebounds are shorting opportunities. Do not let short-term gains distort your judgment.
The crypto market has never experienced 'unjustified surges,' especially for assets like $MERL, where the resistance is clear and the structure is weakening, creating a bait for speculation. Every 'strong signal' on the current market is a trap set by the market makers. Understand the trend, follow the market, and avoid this wave of traps; now is the time to look for shorting opportunities!
