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Silver prices have surged more than 110% year to date, dramatically outperforming gold. While part of the rally is linked to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and resilient industrial demand, these factors alone do not fully explain the scale or speed of the move. Beneath the surface, the rally is increasingly being driven by aggressive short-covering in the futures market and a growing loss of confidence in the long-standing “paper silver” system.
Unlike gold, silver lacks the backing of central bank reserves and operates in a far smaller and less liquid market. This makes it an isolated asset that is more vulnerable to sharp price swings and potential manipulation. Limited liquidity amplifies the impact of speculative flows, increasing volatility when positions unwind or shift suddenly.
A key feature of the current rally is a persistent futures premium, where futures prices trade above spot prices. This suggests that funds are pushing up contract prices, fueling a futures squeeze. At the same time, major global exchanges are seeing significant drawdowns in physical silver inventories, pointing to a physical silver run. The gap between the volume of paper contracts and available physical metal is widening, exposing the fragility of a system built largely on leverage and trust.
JPMorgan Chase plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem. The bank reportedly controls close to 43% of COMEX silver inventories and manages substantial amounts of silver held in ETFs. This places it in a critical gateway position, with outsized influence over physical delivery dynamics and, by extension, overall market stability.
More broadly, confidence in paper-based precious metals markets is eroding. Investors are increasingly shifting from financial products toward physical ownership. A similar trend is visible in the gold market, where inventories are steadily moving eastward. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, this reflects a deeper struggle over monetary pricing power and control of real assets.
Ultimately, the sharp swings in silver prices suggest that the rules of the precious metals market are changing. Physical assets are regaining prominence as stores of value, while paper systems that rely heavily on credit and leverage are facing rising stress and the risk of structural failure.
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