Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading in a very tight range and remains just below the upper boundary of its trend channel. Based on the current market structure and historical behavior, the probability of a major breakout over the weekend appears relatively low.
---
๐ Market Context: Why the Weekend May Stay Quiet
Historically, Ethereumโalong with the broader crypto marketโrarely sees strong trend breakouts over weekends, especially when:
Trading volume is steadily declining
Liquidity naturally thins toward year-end
Lower timeframes lack impulsive price action
In such conditions, markets typically move sideways, which is exactly what ETH is doing now.
---
๐ Ethereum Trend Channel & Higher Timeframe Outlook
At the moment, $ETH is trading below the upper boundary of its trend channel but is still holding above the channelโs midline, located around $2,800 โ $2,810.
โ ๏ธ A decisive break below this midline would significantly increase the likelihood of a deeper downside move.
---
๐ฝ Potential Downside Target (Wave 5 Scenario)
๐ $2,626 โ $2,258
At this stage, there is not enough evidence to confirm a market top. However, early warning signals suggest that the corrective structure may already be complete.
---
๐ Elliott Wave Analysis: Two Scenarios in Play
Ethereum currently presents two valid scenarios:
๐ก Scenario 1 (Yellow Count โ Bearish Continuation)
Wave 4 likely ended at the November 21 low
$ETH may now be starting a Wave 5 impulse to the downside
This move would typically unfold as a five-wave structure
This scenario gains confirmation below $2,800
๐ต Alternative Scenario (Bullish Diagonal Potential)
The November 21 low may represent a meaningful bottom
A diagonal structure could be developing
Confirmation requires a break above $3,245
While the structure is not ideal, it would still be taken seriously if confirmed
---
โฑ Short-Term Weekend Range: Key Support & Resistance
Due to low volume, $ETH is currently respecting a classic weekend range.
๐ข Weekend Support:
$2,983 โ $3,068
Price has already bounced from this zone.
๐ด Weekend Resistance:
$3,156 โ $3,245
This area aligns with the upper boundary of the trend channel.
The current price action likely represents a corrective bounce (Wave 2) rather than the beginning of a new impulsive move.
๐ Volatility may increase late Sunday, but until then, Ethereum is expected to remain range-bound.
