#Ethereum ($ETH ) is currently trading in a tight consolidation range, holding just below the upper boundary of its trend channel. Based on historical behavior and present market conditions, a low-volatility weekend appears to be the most likely outcome, with no strong signs of an immediate breakout.


🔍 Market Context: Why the Weekend May Stay Calm

  1. Historically, Ethereum — like most crypto assets — rarely delivers decisive trend breakouts over weekends, especially when:

  2. Trading volume is already declining

  3. Liquidity remains thin toward year-end

  4. Lower-timeframe price action lacks impulsive momentum

This combination typically leads to range-bound price action, which aligns closely with what the market is currently showing.

📊 Trend Channel & Higher-Timeframe Outlook

  • $ETH remains below the upper boundary of its trend channel

  • Price is still holding above the channel’s midpoint, around $2,800–$2,810

A clean break below this midline would significantly increase the probability of further downside movement.

🔽 Potential Downside Target (Wave 5 Scenario):

$2,626 – $2,258

At this stage, there is no confirmed market top, but early warning signals suggest that the corrective structure may already be complete.

🌊 Elliott Wave Outlook: Two Scenarios in Play

Ethereum currently presents two valid technical scenarios:

🟡 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Yellow Count)

Corrective Wave 4 likely ended on Nov 21

  • $ETH may be starting Wave 5 impulse to the downside

  • Expected to unfold as a five-wave bearish structure

This scenario gains confirmation below $2,800

🔵 Alternative Scenario: Bullish Diagonal Formation

  • The Nov 21 low may already be a meaningful bottom

  • A developing diagonal pattern could be forming

  • Confirmation requires a break above $3,245

  • Structure is not ideal, but would still be respected if confirmed

⏱ Weekend Range: Key Support & Resistance

Ethereum is currently respecting a typical low-volume weekend range.

🟢 Weekend Support:

$2,983 – $3,068

Price has already shown reaction from this zone.

🔴 Weekend Resistance:

$3,156 – $3,245

This zone aligns with the upper boundary of the trend channel.

Current price action appears to be a corrective bounce (Wave 2) within a broader bearish structure, rather than the start of a fresh impulsive rally.

A rise in volatility may emerge late Sunday, but until then, range trading remains the higher-probability scenario.

📈 ETHUSDT (Perpetual)

Price: 3,109.15

24H Change: +0.74%

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