Ethereum ($ETH ) continues to trade within a tight range, holding just below the upper boundary of its broader trend channel. Current market conditions strongly suggest a low-volatility weekend, with a decisive breakout appearing unlikely in the near term.
Based on historical behavior and present structure, Ethereum is more likely to remain range-bound than make a significant directional move over the weekend.
🔍 Market Context: Why the Weekend Is Likely to Stay Quiet
Historically, Ethereum—and the broader crypto market—rarely sees major trend-channel breakouts during weekends, particularly when several conditions align:
Trading volume is already declining
Liquidity is thin, especially toward year-end
Lower-timeframe price action lacks impulsive structure
This combination typically results in sideways, corrective price action, which is exactly what Ethereum is currently displaying.
📊 Trend Channel & Higher-Timeframe Outlook
Ethereum remains below the upper boundary of its trend channel, while still holding above the channel’s midpoint, currently located around $2,800–$2,810.
This midpoint is a critical level:
Holding above it keeps the structure neutral-to-constructive
A clear breakdown below $2,800 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper move lower
🔽 Potential Downside Target (Wave 5 Scenario)
If bearish momentum accelerates, the next major downside zone lies between:
$2,626 – $2,258
At this stage, there is not enough evidence to confirm a major market top, but early warning signs suggest that the corrective structure may already be complete.
🌊 Elliott Wave Perspective: Two Scenarios in Play
Ethereum currently presents two valid Elliott Wave scenarios, with neither fully confirmed yet.
🟡 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Yellow Count)
Corrective Wave 4 likely ended at the November 21 low
Ethereum may now be starting Wave 5 to the downside
This move would likely unfold as a five-wave impulsive decline
Confirmation level: Sustained trading below $2,800
This remains the higher-probability scenario unless invalidated.
🔵 Alternative Scenario: Bullish Diagonal Formation
The November 21 low may already represent a meaningful bottom
Price action could be forming a diagonal structure
While the diagonal is not ideal in form, it cannot be ignored
Confirmation level: A decisive break above $3,245
Only a breakout above this level would shift the broader outlook back toward bullish continuation.
⏱ Weekend Outlook: Key Support & Resistance Levels
Ethereum is currently respecting a typical weekend range, consistent with low-volume conditions.
🟢 Weekend Support
$2,983 – $3,068
This zone has already acted as support, triggering a short-term bounce.
🔴 Weekend Resistance
$3,156 – $3,245
This area aligns with the upper boundary of the trend channel and remains a key rejection zone.
The current bounce appears more consistent with a corrective move (Wave 2) within a broader bearish structure, rather than the start of a new impulsive uptrend.
🔮 Final Takeaway
A range-bound weekend remains the highest-probability outcome
Volatility may increase late Sunday or early next week
Directional confirmation requires:
Below $2,800 → Bearish continuation
Above $3,245 → Bullish diagonal confirmed
