The key event this week is on Tuesday, December 16th 🗓️, when U.S. labor data is released 📊. Markets are already positioning for it, and what happens before the number matters more than the headline itself. 💡
Weak Data Expectations 😟
Expectations are moderate 📉:
🔹ADP payrolls were weak. 📉
🔹Job offers are not improving. 😥
🔹Layoffs are slowly increasing. ⬆️
🔹Wage growth is expected to cool. 🥶
The Weekly Deleveraging Pattern 🔄
We have already seen how this setup plays out:
✅Thursday/Friday: ETF Outflow/Inflow. 🏦➡️📉
✅Monday: $BTC bleeds as leverage is rebuilt. 🩸
That tells me that the ETFs are not chasing strength. 🏃♂️❌ They buy after stress, not before uncertainty. 🛡️ When Friday's entries cause traders to return to leverage, Monday often becomes the cleanup day. 🧹
Derivatives and the Confirmation of the Drop ⬇️
The futures base remains negative. 🔴
Open interest has cooled, but remains elevated. 🥵
The long proportions are increasing again. 📈 (Inviting the drop!)
That generally invites a further drop or a slow bleed 🐌 before the event.
Conclusion for Monday and Tuesday 🎯
So a shakeout on Monday makes sense 💥, not because labor data is expected to be bad, but because liquidity needs to be cleared first. 💨
If Monday restarts leverage (shakeout) and Tuesday's labor data is soft or mixed 😌, $BTC may stabilize and move higher with ETF support. 🟢
If the data surprises to the upside 😲, the move extends, it is not a breakout. 🚧
This labor report is a liquidity check point 💧, not a verdict. ⚖️
Monday restarts the positioning. ⚙️ Tuesday helps decide the direction. 🧭
Follow #Alezito50x — I explain what happens next, before the market does. 🧠
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