A K-line and a piece of news may hide completely opposite signals.
Did you see that news this morning? It's about that giant whale who once borrowed coins to short 66,000 ETH and has now borrowed 85 million USDT to buy 38,576 ETH all at once, approximately 190 million dollars. Interestingly, while he was madly increasing his position, the 4-hour K-line chart of ETH showed a death cross on the MACD below the 0 axis, and the price kept going down.
News: Opportunities are hidden in contradictions.
This is the most interesting part.
Who is the whale? It is the one who once shorted ETH on a large scale. Now he is borrowing coins to buy in, and it's real money, 190 million dollars. Is he stupid? Definitely not.
There are two possibilities here:
He is bullish, and strategically so. He believes this position is worth buying, even if he is temporarily trapped. This is usually a signal for medium to long-term positioning.
He may be hedging or playing more complex derivative strategies. Simply looking at the up and down can easily lead you into trouble.
But in any case, the whales' large purchases at this position at least indicate that he believes the downward space is limited, or there will soon be a rebound. This contradicts the current technical indicators, which suggest further declines, while he is buying heavily.
Technical analysis: the decline is not over yet.
You are now looking at the hourly chart, focusing on several key positions:
Upper resistance: 3150, 3275, lower support: 3084, 3000, 2700
The MACD is below the zero line with a death cross, which is a confirmation signal for the downtrend. The volume has shrunk, indicating fewer sellers, but even fewer buyers, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode.
If it continues to fall tonight, and 3084 cannot hold, the next target will be the round figure of 3000. This is very critical, as it is both a psychological level and a position that many technical analysts will consider for bottom-fishing.
However, if 3000 breaks as well, panic selling may occur, which could quickly plunge towards the 2900-2700 area. This is the worst-case scenario.
What should players do? Remember one thing: don’t guess the bottom, wait for signals.
If you are currently in cash: don’t rush in. In a downtrend, reaching out can lead to losses. Patiently wait for a stop-loss signal.
Want to bottom-fish? Use the 'pyramid method'. Don’t think about going all-in at the lowest point.
If you have positions that are trapped:
Look at your position. If heavily invested, a rebound to around 3150 is an opportunity to reduce your position; don’t hesitate.
Look at your cost. If your cost is not high and you can hold on, then set a stop-loss to prevent losses from expanding infinitely.
Personal opinion:
Tonight, ETH is more likely to follow a 'bottom-fishing fluctuation' trend, with the probability of a direct strong attack on 3150 being less than 20%. A greater possibility is to test 3000 downwards, even approaching the 2900 support area, accompanied by fluctuations triggered by news from whales.
The buying by whales provides a 'buffer' and 'springboard' for the downtrend, which may complicate the decline process, but it is difficult to instantly change the trend direction.
If you don’t want to miss the upcoming key analysis, want to know what the whales might do next, and how to ambush the next wave of market movements in advance, follow me. Tonight, we will watch the market together. Protecting your capital before the market moves is more important than anything else.
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