Recently, the surge of $MERL has indeed been impressive, with its market value directly jumping into the top 100. Many people have started to get excited, thinking it will reach new highs.
However, after carefully examining the data, I increasingly feel that this is just the operators luring in buyers at high levels. During times of average liquidity from the weekend to the beginning of the week, they force a surge to specifically entice retail investors to chase the price, allowing them to offload at high levels.
I am now thoroughly bearish on MERL, with a pattern dominated by short sellers, leaving little room for upward movement.
First, let's discuss the technical side:
This surge has repeatedly touched 0.44-0.46 without breaking through, firmly stuck at resistance levels. Each time it rises, it falls back, and the candlestick structure clearly shows weakness. The rise occurs during periods of low trading volume, resembling a false breakout to create FOMO; once large funds return to normal, a rapid sell-off is likely.
The short-term peak is already very obvious.
Now, regarding the supply side:
Unlocking will occur on December 19th. Although it is not particularly large (in the millions), coupled with the previous accumulation of anticipated selling pressure, the market's buying interest will surely take a step back. Early investors have a low cost basis, and now the price is significantly profitable for them, so a slight rebound will prompt some to cash out.
Before and after the unlocking, any surge can easily be ruthlessly cashed out by low-cost holders, severely compressing the price rebound potential.
Lastly, looking at on-chain activity:
Recently, although I haven't seen particularly large single transactions entering exchanges, the overall capital movement and position distribution indicate that large players show signs of reducing their positions at high levels. With the unlocking approaching, some are definitely preparing hedges or planning to sell.
Once such signals emerge, they can easily spread, and as bearish sentiment expands, others will follow suit and sell, causing the price to decline rapidly.
With triple pressures stacking up: technical peaks, supply expectations, and signs of capital withdrawal, the intensity and certainty of selling pressure completely overwhelm buying interest.
Next, it is highly likely to follow the old pattern of anticipated selling pressure → slow decline → panic selling.
Personally, I am extremely bearish on $MERL, and I recommend shorting at highs around 0.45-0.46. Don’t wait for it to draw another false bullish candle to lure you in. The short-term target looks back at 0.35-0.4, or even lower. This surge is a classic baiting opportunity; don’t be blinded by the surface increase.
