🚨 Market Warning: The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates, global liquidity faces a turning point 🇯🇵$BTC $ETH
This is a macro event that deserves significant attention. The transmission logic behind it will directly affect global capital flows and risk asset pricing. The following is a step-by-step deduction of the key logic:
🔍 Core Logic Chain
1. Event: The Bank of Japan is expected to initiate a rate hike (possibly by 0.25%).
2. Background: Japan has long maintained zero/negative interest rates, being one of the main sources of low-cost global funds (“arbitrage trading” Carry Trade), and is also a major holder of important assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.
3. Transmission: Once Japanese interest rates rise, the attractiveness of domestic assets (such as government bonds) will increase, potentially leading to a “backflow to Japan” of funds that previously flowed to global markets.
4. Impact: Marginal tightening of global dollar liquidity. When “cheap money” decreases in the market, high volatility and high valuation risk assets are usually the first to bear the brunt—Bitcoin is a typical representative among these assets.
📉 Historical Reference: Patterns and Warnings
Recently, after adjustments to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the Bitcoin market reacted significantly:
· March 2024 → BTC fell by about 23%
· July 2024 → BTC fell by about 26%
· January 2025 → BTC fell by about 31%
History does not simply repeat itself, but often rhymes. These data clearly indicate that the policy shift of the Bank of Japan has historically become an important catalyst for Bitcoin price volatility.
⚠️ Current Risk Scenario
If the capital backflow logic is triggered again, Bitcoin may face a new round of selling pressure, and key support areas will be tested. If bears dominate the market, the possibility of prices testing towards $70,000 cannot be ignored.
🎯 Analysis and Response
This is precisely where the value of “forward analysis” and “timing” lies. Just as recently, when most investors were hoping for a rebound on Binance, we had already warned in advance that “Bitcoin might fall back from the $90,000 area” based on liquidity distribution, market structure, and macro events—and market movements have validated this judgment. #日本央行加息 #加密市场观察
Ether's 🐶p.u.p.p.i.e.s
