Just now, the ETH price formed a key doji on the 1-hour candlestick chart at $3122, which is less than $5 away from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.
Both bulls and bears are fiercely contesting in the narrow price corridor around $3120. According to the latest 1-hour candlestick chart, the ETH/USDT perpetual contract price hovers around $3121.99, and the Bollinger Bands indicator is sending important signals.
The Bollinger Bands show a significant contraction, with the upper band at $3126.75, the lower band at $3060.65, and the middle band at $3093.70. The price is currently close to the upper band, and this squeezing pattern usually indicates an impending large fluctuation.
What is more noteworthy is the arrangement of the moving averages. The EMA(7) is $3107.89, and the EMA(30) is $3101.29. The two short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the price is above them, which is a technical signal indicating a bullish short-term trend.
The MACD indicator tells a different story. The DIF value is 1.65, the DEA value is 3.72, and the DIF is still running below the DEA, with the histogram at 10.74. Although the MACD histogram is positive, indicating a weakening of downward momentum, the DIF has not yet crossed above the DEA to form a golden cross, suggesting that the upward momentum is still not strong enough.
From the chart pattern observation, the price has been oscillating in the small range of $3118-$3123 for multiple cycles; this sideways consolidation is exhausting the market's patience. Once the price effectively breaks through the upper resistance of $3126.75, the short-term target can be seen at the $3150-$3180 area.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the psychological level of $3100 and the dense area of moving averages, it may quickly plunge to seek support near the lower Bollinger Band around $3060.
Let me speak frankly: the current market is in an extremely sensitive state. On one hand, the technical indicators show potential for a short-term upward breakthrough; on the other hand, insufficient volume and the divergence signals from MACD suggest this may be a false breakout.
From a trading perspective, I suggest viewing $3126 as the short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish. After an effective breakthrough, one can follow up with a light position, placing a stop-loss below $3100, with a target towards $3150. If the price cannot break through the upper band and starts to retreat, then the $3060-$3080 area will be a better entry point for bulls.
The market will not remain sideways forever; the contraction of the Bollinger Bands is like a compressed spring, and the accumulated energy will eventually be released. At this critical juncture, risk management is more important than pursuing profits.
Do you think ETH will break through $3127 first or retest $3060 first? What position do you currently hold? Share your trading plans and judgment logic in the comments section, and let’s track this upcoming turning point together!
