🚨 Is the Christmas bell a signal for harvesting? Before the institutions go on holiday, should they clear the retail investors' contract accounts as a 'Christmas gift'? Every piece of data this week is a heavy artillery strike, specifically targeting the bulls' lifeline? Or is it better to hold good spot assets!
Thinking that the end of the year is the 'Christmas market'? Wrong, before Christmas, Americans will lay out the script for the first quarter of next year all at once, and the market has entered a high volatility and structural game stage. $ETH can hold steady, all depends on these five days.
💣 This week's schedule is nerve-wracking:
· Tuesday night, Non-Farm Payroll: This is not just data, it is the 'interest rate cut verdict' for the Federal Reserve. Good = delay in interest rate cuts, directly shattering the market's expectations of a rate cut in January.
· Thursday night, U.S. CPI: The real 'king bomb'! Even a slight rise in inflation, all dovish officials will collectively 'forget'. The core logic of the last bull market (inflation peaking + interest rate cuts), this is the first breakout point.
· Hidden BOSS: Bank of Japan: The last remaining zero-cost funding pool in the world may close. Once interest rates are raised, the 'arbitrage trading' of borrowing yen to speculate on cryptocurrencies will be forced to collectively unwind to repay debts, pulling liquidity, with risk assets like $ETH taking the brunt.
💥 How fragile is the current market?
$BTC Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000, partly due to the pressure from expectations of Japanese interest rate hikes. Historical data is bloody: since 2024, almost every time the central bank raises interest rates, Bitcoin has followed with a drop of 20%-30%. At this moment, every 1% price fluctuation could trigger a chain liquidation.
🎯 Survival strategy:
1. Watch more, act less: Before the CPI (Thursday night) and the Bank of Japan's decision (Friday), it is better to miss out than to make a mistake. Gambling in front of clear risks is rookie behavior.
2. Identify the patterns: Pay close attention to whether 'buying expectations, selling facts' is being played out. If there is a strong pull before the data and a drop after landing, it is solid evidence of large funds offloading on good news.
3. Stay flexible: The market has switched from a trend market to a rhythm game stage. The true hunter waits for the gunfire to cease and the smoke to clear before entering the arena.
👉 Friends, in this wave of 'Christmas judgment', will you choose to watch from the sidelines, or prepare to lick blood on the knife edge?
