Currently, ETH is between two key liquidation thresholds: there is approximately 865 million in long liquidation pressure below $3000, and approximately 825 million in short liquidation pressure above $3200. This means:


If the price can break through $3200 with significant volume, it will trigger a large-scale short liquidation. The exchange will actively buy ETH to close positions, creating a strong 'short squeeze' buying pressure, potentially pushing the price rapidly towards the next resistance zone, as shown in the chart in the $3360-$3450 range.

If the price fails to break through $3200 and instead starts to decline, it will first test support around $3100. If it effectively breaks below $3000, it will trigger a large-scale long liquidation, leading to a chain reaction of selling, and the price may accelerate downward towards $2900 or even lower.


The core of the short-term trend is to observe the outcome of the price game within the narrow range of $3100-$3200. The market is about to choose a direction to break out.


My view is clear: the short-term is at a critical point of change, the direction is about to be chosen, but the technical structure is slightly bearish.
The current price is suppressed below the strong resistance of $3200, and it is far from the strong support of $3000 below, which means the potential for a downward move is greater than that for an upward move. However, due to the enormous liquidation intensity above $3200, any upward breakout could be violent and rapid. The outcome of bulls and bears will depend on the price's testing results at the $3200 mark in the coming days.


Based on the above speculations and views, my operational plan is as follows:
For holders:


Set $3000 as the final defense line. If the price falls below this level (for example, confirmed by the 4-hour candlestick closing price), you must decisively stop-loss and exit to avoid a potential long squeeze.
Before the price breaks $3200, any rebound is an opportunity for reducing positions or adjusting them, not a reason to increase positions.


For those planning to open positions:
It is strictly forbidden to operate casually within the $3100-$3200 range, as both long and short risks are high here, making it easy to get swept away in both directions.
Wait for the direction to be clear, only follow:


Long opportunity: Wait for the price to break out with volume and stabilize above $3200. This is the clearest right-side long signal, and you can follow with a light position.


Shorting opportunity: Wait for the price to rebound to the $3180-$3200 range and show signs of stagnation (such as upper shadows, shrinking volume), and you can try a light short.

If you often find yourself stuck while chasing highs and lows without a clear direction, enter the chat room to get the most useful operational ideas, whether it's during a slow bull phase or sector rotation, you won't miss out.