according to the materials of the site - By Coincu
Marcus Tilen from 10x Research indicates that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is now determined by political factors and liquidity factors, rather than the halving affecting investor behavior amid the recent decline in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
This shift towards political influence on Bitcoin cycles underscores changes in market dynamics, reflecting the caution of institutional investors and the impact of U.S. fiscal policy on cryptocurrency metrics.
The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle model is undergoing critical analysis. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that while the Bitcoin cycle persists, the halving event is no longer a primary influencing factor. Instead, increasing influence is exerted by political factors, liquidity conditions, and electoral cycles.
As the Federal Reserve maintains ambiguous political signals, institutional investors remain cautious. This cautious stance has led to a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow into Bitcoin, resulting in a prolonged period of price stability rather than the expected upward growth. The historical peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 are currently not being repeated due to prevailing conditions.
The response of the crypto community and market analysts reflects conflicting sentiments. Some experts, such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat, predict a potential rally to $200,000 despite the current sluggishness. However, the lack of clear statements from other influencers supports cautious investor sentiment. Institutional caution appears to set the tone for the short-term trajectory of the Bitcoin market, as emphasized by Thielen's forecasts.
The current dynamics of the Bitcoin market mirror the patterns of historical peaks from 2013, 2017, and 2021, emphasizing the changing influence of political and economic factors on traditional cyclical events such as halving.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $89,292.47, and the market capitalization is formatNumber(1,782,455,566,078.18, 2). The trading volume over the last 24 hours was $67,469,074,069.11, indicating a decrease of -17.42%. The coin demonstrates a series of downward trends with declines of -1.22%, -6.97%, and -22.46% over the last 24 hours, 30, and 90 days, respectively. This data, provided by CoinMarketCap, highlights the current bearish trend of Bitcoin and market volatility.