In-depth analysis
1. Massive technical sell-off (bearish impact)
Overview: IOTA has broken below its 30-day simple moving average ($0.111) and the Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% ($0.1259), triggering stop-loss orders. The 14-day RSI, at 30.91, suggests an oversold situation but has not yet stabilized the price.
In clear: technical analysts likely liquidated their positions after the breakout, a phenomenon exacerbated by low liquidity (turnover rate of 3.36%). The next critical support is at the lowest of 2025, at $0.09395.
To watch: a close above $0.10 (current price: $0.0959) could signal a short-term respite. A failure risks testing the threshold of $0.09.
2. Weakness of altcoins (Bearish impact)
Overview: Bitcoin's dominance has remained at 58.55% as the Altcoin Season index has stayed in "Bitcoin Season" territory (score: 21/100).
In short: capital has shifted away from medium-cap alternative cryptocurrencies like IOTA towards assets perceived as safer. The correlation of IOTA with Bitcoin over 30 days reached 0.84, making it vulnerable to market fluctuations related to Bitcoin.
3. Adoption in the real world vs. speculation (mixed impact)
Overview: While IOTA secured custody from BitGo (December 5) and interoperability from LayerZero (December 3), U.Today noted the stagnant development of dApps (≤10 live dApps) and a TVL of less than 10 million dollars as obstacles to adoption.
What this means: institutional access alone has not translated into growth in network usage, creating a sense of "show me the indicators."
Conclusion
The decline of IOTA reflects technical failures and the general weakness of the altcoin sector, exacerbated by skepticism about its concrete adoption despite its successes in infrastructure. Key point: Will IOTA manage to stay above $0.09395 or will Bitcoin's dominance cause it to drop to new lows?$IOTA
