$ETH $ZEC 🔥💥Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Driving Logic Shift: Macroeconomic Politics and Liquidity Become New Dominants
The past four-year cycle patterns of Bitcoin remain valid, but its core driving logic has undergone profound changes. 10x Research Director Markus Thielen pointed out that the key factors driving the cycle have shifted from early technical narratives to macro variables such as the political environment, global liquidity, and election cycles. #比特币四年周期驱动逻辑转变
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has reached historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, exhibiting cyclical characteristics. However, despite the market being under the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, Bitcoin has not surged as expected. The main reason is that current institutional investors are making more cautious decisions, and the overall pace of capital entry has slowed down. #加密市场观察
Analysis suggests that until there is a substantial improvement in macro liquidity, the market lacks sustainable upward capital momentum. Bitcoin is expected to continue its range-bound volatility until new macro catalytic factors emerge—such as the results of the U.S. election or a shift in global liquidity expectations towards easing. The cycle is present, but the shift in driving logic requires investors to pay closer attention to policy and funding trends. #宏观政治与流动性成主导
