The cryptocurrency market continues to cling to the psychological zone of $3 trillion, but the technical structure is beginning to show signs of fatigue that traders cannot ignore.

In the last 24 hours, the total market capitalization fell 0.2%, and for the week it has accumulated a correction of 2.2%, standing at $3.06T. Although the bulls have managed to defend the $3.0T level for more than 10 days, there is one key detail:

👉 the old bullish trend has been replaced by a horizontal support, a transition that rarely favors buyers.

Market Sentiment: Persistent Fear

The sentiment index fell to 16, its lowest level in more than three weeks.

This prolonged state of caution recalls late phases of previous cycles, where the market weakened without a clear catalyst, similar to what was seen towards the end of 2021.

📌 The issue is not a momentary panic, but the duration of fear.

Bitcoin: Key Support Under Pressure

Bitcoin briefly fell below $87,500, although it managed to regain ground towards the $90,000 zone. However:

The upward trend active since November has been broken

Selling pressure has intensified since last week

The critical structural level is now at $81,000

Bulls are not seeking an immediate explosion but rather a longer consolidation that allows for absorbing supply without a sudden collapse.

ETFs: Institutional Demand Remains Present

Despite the technical weakness, institutional flows tell another story:

Spot BTC ETFs: +$286.6M (highest in 7 weeks)

Total historical since January 2024: $57.9B

Spot ETH ETFs (U.S.): +$208.9M in the week

Total accumulated: $12.88B

Solana ETFs: +$36M in the week | $675M in 7 weeks

XRP ETFs: +$974M since their launch on November 14

📌 Institutional capital is not leaving, but it is also not aggressively pushing the price.

Expectations: Year-End Caution

On the prediction platform Kalshi, most of the market bets on a conservative close:

Only 23% believe BTC will exceed $100,000 before the end of the year

The consensus points to a close below that level

BTC Concentration and TradFi Vision

According to Glassnode:

29.8% of BTC supply is in the hands of:

Governments

Institutions

Centralized exchanges

Large organizations

Meanwhile, Vanguard maintains a critical stance, rating Bitcoin as:

“A speculative collectible, with no income, cash flow, or compound interest.”

Stablecoins Under Scrutiny

Rating agencies are also adjusting their focus:

Moody’s announced new rating standards for fiat stablecoins

S&P Global downgraded the stability rating of USDT to one of its lowest levels in November

Some analysts believe that Tether could face greater regulatory pressure

Conclusion

The crypto market continues to defend $3T, but the loss of bullish structure and the deterioration of sentiment suggest that risk is increasing.

📉 Weakened technicals

🧠 Fragile sentiment

🏦 Institutions are present, but cautious

The next move will depend on whether the market can rebuild momentum or if the current defense is just a pause before a deeper correction.

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