📈 Market in one sentence:
BTC plunged to $86,299 late at night, dropping nearly 3% in 24 hours, directly breaking through the previous 'iron bottom' support. Panic has emerged in the market, but trading volume has not exploded, indicating a 'low volume breakout' trend.
🔍 Core Indicator Breakdown:
1. Price plummets below key support: Current price 86,299.76 has significantly broken below previous strong support 87,424 (original Bollinger lower band) and is below the new Bollinger lower band (87,243.62). This is a strong short-term bearish breakout signal, indicating a clear weakening trend.
2. MACD bearish momentum sharply increases: DIF (-842.59) and DEA (-565.36) are widening below the zero axis, with a MACD value of -277.23. This confirms that bearish momentum not only dominates but is significantly strengthening, with the downtrend accelerating.
3. All oscillators are extremely oversold:
◦ KDJ's J value is only 11.69, severely oversold.
◦ RSI(6) has dropped to 19.41, extremely oversold.
◦ This indicates that the market is in a state of emotional selling in the short term, and a technical rebound is imminent, but the strength of the rebound needs to be observed.
4. Volume Divergence with Price (declining with reduced volume): Current volume (1,258) is significantly lower than the 5-day average volume (2,537), which is classified as 'decline with reduced volume.' This suggests that the main players may not be exiting on a large scale; the decline is more driven by retail panic and passive selling, but it also means the buying pressure is extremely weak.
📍 Key Position and Operational Thoughts:
• Core Pressure (New): $87,243 (original Bollinger lower band, now turned into first pressure point) → $89,481 (Bollinger middle band, dividing line between strong and weak). Any rebound that fails to stay above $87,243 is a weak rebound.
• Core Support (New): $85,636 (24-hour low) → $84,000 (front platform support, psychological threshold). Pay attention to whether $85,636 can form a double bottom.
• Operational Thoughts:
◦ Current Situation: Breakdown and decline, trend has turned bearish, but indicators are extremely oversold. Avoid panic selling during sharp declines, and do not blindly catch the falling knife.
◦ Holders: If heavily positioned, a rebound to the $87,200-$87,500 pressure zone is an opportunity to reduce positions and set stop losses. Do not add positions during the decline.
◦ Cash Holders/Observers: It is strictly forbidden to 'catch flying knives' at this position. Patiently wait for one of two signals: ① Price shows a clear reduction in volume near $85,600, stopping the decline, and forms stabilization patterns like 'long lower shadow,' allowing for small position rebounds; ② Price rebounds with increased volume and re-establishes above $89,481 (Bollinger middle band), then consider whether the trend has truly reversed.
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（Breakdown trend, cash is king. Better to miss out than to make a mistake. Personal analysis, for reference only, market risk is extremely high!）
