🎯While the outbreak of CONFLICTS in Venezuela, Russia, and the Middle East could trigger the PRICE of OIL, affecting #Bitcoin👇
👀The scenario projected by the main energy agencies and BANKS is one of ABUNDANCE and BEARISH PRESSURE
⛽️Oil "BRENT" is NOT anticipating a bullish shock (as long as no EXTREME catalyst occurs in the Middle East, Venezuela, or Russia)
Why oil does NOT seem ready to rise and why it is KEY for $BTC ⁉️
🎯Today Brent is around $60–61 per barrel, levels we haven't seen in years, even with active geopolitical tensions
👉Global supply excess is projected
▫️The EIA and other agencies project an excess of production in 2026
▫️Rising inventories put downward pressure on prices
▫️Estimates point to averages between $50 and $60 per barrel
👉Production OUTSIDE of OPEC+ is rising
▫️The U.S., Brazil, and other producers are producing quite a bit of oil
▫️The market is no longer 'tight' as in previous cycles
📉Price projections for 2026:
▪️Oxford Economics: $58 (dropping to $55 in 2027)
▪️Goldman Sachs: $56
▪️J.P. Morgan: $58–60
▪️ING: $57
▪️Reuters (nov-2025): $62
💡Now the KEY: why is this POSITIVE for financial markets⁉️
🔹Lower oil price = lower inflation
▫️Transportation, energy, and input costs are decreasing
🔹Lower inflation = more margin for rate cuts
▫️Gives breathing room to the Fed and other central banks
▫️Facilitates more expansive monetary policies
▫️Could lead the Bank of Japan to NOT raise the rate in 2026
🔹Lower energy costs = higher corporate profitability
▫️Companies are spending less on production
▫️Margins improve without the need to raise prices
▫️Direct support for stocks and risk assets
📍Cheap oil is indirect fuel for rate cuts, lower inflation, and better financial conditions
📍An environment that historically favors stocks, #Bitcoin, and risk assets in general
Do you think it will shoot up or remain stable/falling⁉️
