The decline in cryptocurrencies today, despite the upcoming Federal meeting tomorrow 16/12/2025, is not a contradiction but rather a natural and recurring behavior before major events. This is my clear reading of what happened:
๐ด First: What really happened today?
The decline we saw is a preemptive correction (Pre-Event De-Risking)
That is, large traders and institutions have:
Reducing positions
Profit taking
Reducing risks before the Fed meeting and sensitive data (CPI / Jobs)
And this often happens before the decision, not after it.
๐ง The main reasons for the decline
1๏ธโฃ Fear, not news
The market does not wait for the newsโฆ but is afraid of it
The Fed meeting is approaching
Inflation and jobs data are incomplete due to government disruption
Any surprising word from Powell could change the direction
โก๏ธ In such an atmosphere, crypto (the highest risk asset) is the first to be sold.
2๏ธโฃ Liquidation of leveraged positions
Before major meetings:
High leveraged Long positions are being closed
Stops are hit below supports
This creates a rapid and successive fall
๐ป Today's drop bears the mark of 'liquidation of positions' and not fundamental collapse.
3๏ธโฃ A temporary rise in the dollar (DXY)
Some investors have returned to the dollar as a temporary refuge
Any short improvement in the dollar = direct pressure on crypto
4๏ธโฃ Doubt about the timing of interest rate cuts
Although:
The general trend = monetary easing
Except that:
The market is uncertain whether the cut is now or later in 2026
โก๏ธ This doubt creates volatility and a temporary flight from risk.
๐ Is this drop negative in the medium term?
No โ it may actually be healthy.
Post-meeting scenarios:
๐ข The positive scenario (most likely)
The Fed has a flexible tone
Stabilization or reduction with confirmation of data monitoring โก๏ธ crypto quickly compensates for the drop (Buy the dip)
๐ก The neutral scenario
No cut + cautious tone โก๏ธ volatility then stabilization then subsequent rise
๐ด The negative scenario (less likely)
A surprising hawkish tone โก๏ธ temporarily breaking deeper supports
๐ Summary in brief
๐ Today's drop is not a collapse
๐ is:
Fear before the decision
Profit taking
Leveraged liquidation
Waiting for clarity
๐ The larger trend for cryptocurrencies is still tied to monetary easing, not what happened today.
๐ก Smart advice (non-investment):
Do not chase the market in times of fear
Watch:
Fed statement
Powell's tone
Reaction of the dollar and bonds
Opportunities often appear after the decision, not before it
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