1. Trend Identification
The prevailing trend since the peak in October has been a major downtrend.
Trend Peak: The currency peaked at around 126,199.63 on October 5, 2025.
Formation of tops and bottoms: Lower highs and lower lows have been formed, which is the classic definition of a downtrend.
2. Key Price Levels
A. Resistance Levels:
Major Resistance (Long-term): 126,199. This point represents the highest price the currency has reached in this timeframe and acts as a strong historical resistance.
Medium Resistance (Previous Consolidation Range): Located around the area of 98,000 to 108,000. Exceeding this area upwards will be a strong signal to cancel the short-term downward trend.
B. Support Levels:
Critical Support: 80,600.00. This is the lowest price the currency has reached in this timeframe (around November 6).
Importance: This level is critical. If it is broken and a clear daily candle closes below it, it is likely that the decline will continue to lower price levels.
3. Current Price Action Analysis
The current price is approximately 86,019.99.
Consolidation/Volatility Phase: After the sharp decline that reached a bottom of 80,600, the price entered a narrow sideways volatility phase between 80,600 and 90,000 approximately (since early December).
Candle Significance: The small size of the candles during this phase compared to previous bearish candles indicates a decline in momentum and volatility, signaling a state of indecision and uncertainty in the market, where buyers and sellers are battling to determine the next direction.
4. Expected Scenarios (Scenario Analysis)
There are three expected scenarios:
Continuing to decline (Bearish) and breaking the critical support level of 80,600. Confirming the continuation of the downward trend and looking for new support levels below.
Bouncing back and recovering (Bullish) and breaking the sideways range upwards and rising above 90,000 then 98,000. Indicating that buyers have regained control and a change in the short-term trend.
Volatility (Neutral) and staying within the current range between 80,600 and 90,000. Continuing the consolidation phase until a strong price catalyst appears.
