On cryptocurrency exchanges, leverage has dropped to its lowest levels since May. This indicates that market participants are consciously reducing risks and trying to weather an uncertain period without aggressive bets.
For beginners: a decrease in leverage usually means that the market is becoming less 'overheated', but upward impulses during such times are typically weak.
Bitcoin dominance: year-end results
In the first half of the year, Bitcoin confidently dominated — capital flowed into BTC, rotations occurred, and altcoins lagged behind. In the second half of the year, the situation changed: some liquidity moved to ETH, and BTC dominance decreased and could not sustainably recover.
The latest attempts to increase dominance coincided with a reduction in leverage, but by the end of the year they weakened. This indicates that the market is still unsure who will be the main 'anchor' for the next movement.
The situation with altcoins and Solana
Most altcoins finish the year below their opening price, especially after a weak fourth quarter. Solana was no exception.
At the same time, in the pair to BTC, SOL maintained its structure and did not update the double bottom from spring to early summer. This indicates a preservation of relative strength. If the consolidation phase continues and there is an influx of capital, such coins may react faster than the market.
For beginners: relative strength to BTC is often more important than just price growth in dollars.
Expectations for Bitcoin
Some analysts suggest that if a confirmed bottom is reached, the market could show a recovery similar to the sharp movements we have seen previously against macro news. However, for now, this is just a scenario, not a confirmed trend.
Position of long-term holders
According to Swissblock, long-term holders continue to distribute positions, and this week the pace of sales has increased. If the price approaches the 93–95 thousand zone again, selling pressure may intensify.
The key factor here is not the level itself, but the intensity of sales. If the supply is absorbed by the market, this will be a positive signal. If not, the growth will again be limited.
Conclusion
The market is in a phase of reducing risks and seeking equilibrium. Leverage has been cleared, but there is still no confidence in stable BTC leadership. In such conditions, it is more important to not rush and observe liquidity behavior and price reactions to key zones.
