Dear crypto enthusiasts,

From last night to today, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have undergone yet another round of severe adjustments.

BTC once fell below a critical support level, and ETH followed suit, causing anxiety in many: does this plunge mean the end of the bull market? Is the market set to return to a long bear market?

Please take a deep breath and calm down.

The history of the cryptocurrency market tells us: every plunge is a preparation for the next rise. Today's low is precisely tomorrow's starting point for glory.

Looking back at history: plunges have never been the end.

Since its inception, the crypto market has been known for its high volatility. Yet every seemingly fatal adjustment ultimately transforms into a stronger rebound.

In the great bear market of 2018, BTC plummeted from $20,000 to around $3,000, with countless people claiming 'Bitcoin is dead.'

So what? The super bull market of 2020-2021 drove BTC to nearly $70,000.

The long winter night of 2022 saw BTC drop to $16,000, ETH fall below $1,000, FTX collapse, Luna go to zero... fear reached its peak.

But in 2023-2024, with BTC ETF approvals and the halving cycle starting, BTC broke through its historical high of $100,000, and ETH also returned above $4,000.

It is now December 2025, and we have just experienced a high point correction after the halving in 2024.

This is not the first time, and it will not be the last.

But the historical pattern is clear: the second year after the halving is often the most intense stage of the main uptrend.

Today's decline is just a normal washout in the cycle.

Panic selling, liquidation, and short-term macro pressures (such as Federal Reserve policy expectations or geopolitical events), these are old scripts.

What truly determines long-term trends are the fundamentals.

The fundamentals have never been so strong.

Although prices are under pressure in the short term, the underlying logic of BTC and ETH is more solid than ever.

Institutional entry is unstoppable.

The approval of the spot ETF in 2024 opened the floodgates for Wall Street funds.

The assets of Bitcoin ETFs managed by giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark have exceeded $100 billion.

Ethereum ETFs are also continuously attracting funds.

Institutions are not retail investors; they look at a configuration value of 5-10 years. Every pullback is the best opportunity for them to accumulate at low levels.

Technological upgrades are continuously advancing.

Ethereum's Dencun upgrade and Blob space expansion have significantly reduced Layer 2 costs, truly achieving 'low fees and high throughput.'

Ecosystems such as DeFi, NFT, GameFi, RWA (real-world asset tokenization) are quietly recovering.

BTC's Ordinals and Runes protocol have also injected new narratives and use cases into the Bitcoin network.

The macro environment is changing.

The expectation of global liquidity easing remains. After inflationary pressures ease, major central banks are likely to restart the rate-cutting cycle.

Risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) have always been the biggest beneficiaries of a loose environment.

Looking further ahead, blockchain technology is being taken seriously by governments and companies around the world—from the promotion of pro-crypto policies in the US to the exploration of CBDCs by various countries, cryptocurrencies are moving from the fringe to the mainstream.

The supply side continues to tighten.

The effect of BTC halving is still fermenting, and the daily issuance of new Bitcoins is decreasing.

On the demand side, whether it's the Bitcoin reserve strategy of companies like MicroStrategy or the strategic allocation of sovereign nations, both are continuing to increase.

ETH has become a de facto deflationary asset through the burning mechanism of EIP-1559.

The current low point is the best time to get on board.

Mr. Market is in a bad mood today, discounting and selling quality assets. But remember: be greedy when others are fearful; that is the winner's rule.

Those who held on during the lows of 2022 have now reaped multiple returns.

Today, you also stand at the same crossroads.

In the short term, there may still be fluctuations, but in the medium to long term, BTC returning to above $100,000 and ETH hitting new highs of $5,000 to $6,000 is just a matter of time.

More optimistic voices even believe that this round of bull market in 2025-2026 will push BTC into the era of $200,000.

In closing

Cryptocurrency has never been a lottery ticket for short-term wealth but a long-term belief in future technology.

The crash will pass, fear will dissipate, and what remains are those who believe and persevere.

If you believe that blockchain will change the world, and that decentralization is an irreversible trend, then every acceleration of your heartbeat now reminds you: spring is not far away.

Holders, continue to hold. Observers, find good positions.

Additionally:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is about to raise interest rates (the policy meeting on December 18-19 is expected to increase by 25bp to 0.75%), which is indeed a factor of recent market pressure and may trigger yen appreciation and arbitrage trading liquidation, causing short-term shocks to risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

But this is not an insurmountable obstacle.

Here are the core reasons and real evidence (based on the latest market data and historical facts).

All evidence comes from reliable sources (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, Nikkei, etc.), and the market has highly anticipated this event.

1. The interest rate hike is extremely small, and the absolute rate remains the lowest globally; Japanese policy remains highly loose.

Reason: From 0.5% to 0.75%, only 25 basis points, and 0.75% is still the highest in 30 years, but the absolute level is extremely low (compared to the Federal Reserve's possible 4-5%).

This is just a step toward 'normalization,' not tightening.

Japan is still in an ultra-loose state and will not significantly withdraw global liquidity.

Evidence:

Bloomberg survey: 50 economists 100% expect only an increase to 0.75%.

Reuters poll: 90% of economists expect the rate to rise to 0.75% in December, and believe this is just 'tapping the brakes,' not 'slamming the brakes.'

Japan still has the lowest interest rates among major economies globally, well below the inflation rate, and real interest rates remain negative.

2. The event has been almost completely priced in by the market and will not trigger unexpected shocks.

Reason: The market pricing probability has reached 92-98%, and during the announcement, the market often 'sells the fact,' meaning the negative has been digested in advance, and a rebound may occur.

Evidence:

Nikkei reported: The market's implied probability of a rate hike in December has reached 92%.

Crypto media like CoinDesk mention potential threats but emphasize that this is an 'anticipated event.'

Historically similar: When Japan last raised rates in January 2025 (to 0.5%), BTC fluctuated and quickly recovered, setting new highs.

3. The driving factors of the cryptocurrency market come more from the US and institutions, rather than Japan.

Reason: The global liquidity of crypto assets is mainly influenced by the Federal Reserve, ETF inflows, and US policies.

Although the scale of Japanese arbitrage trading is large, its proportion is limited, and institutions (such as BlackRock) are not dominated by short-term yen fluctuations in long-term allocations.

Evidence:

In the past, during Japan's end of negative interest rates (March 2024) and gradual rate hikes, BTC rose from around $60,000 to over $100,000 and did not collapse due to Japanese policies.

The current BTC/ETH fundamentals (hundreds of billions in ETF inflows, halving cycle) are far stronger than macro noise.

4. Japan's interest rate hike is actually a positive signal: the economy is improving, and global risk appetite is increasing.

Reason: The interest rate hike stems from rising wages in Japan, corporate confidence reaching a four-year high, and inflation stabilizing towards the 2% target.

This is proof of Japan's economic recovery, which is a long-term positive for global risk assets.

Evidence:

Japanese corporate confidence has reached a four-year high, supporting the view of the BOJ raising rates.

Some are worried that the Bank of Japan may raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in a few days, which may trigger yen appreciation and adjustments in arbitrage trading, putting pressure on risk assets.

But rest assured, this impact is far less than imagined.

First, this interest rate hike is extremely small and has been almost completely priced in by the market (with a probability exceeding 90%), and often after the announcement, the market 'sells the fact,' which reduces pressure.

Furthermore, even after Japan's interest rates rise to 0.75%, they will still be the lowest globally, and the essence of policy remains loose.

More importantly, this reflects a strong recovery in the Japanese economy—corporate confidence reaching a four-year high, and wages continuing to rise, all of which are positive signals for increasing global risk appetite.

Looking back in history, during Japan's gradual end to negative interest rates in 2024-2025, Bitcoin not only did not crash but surged to a new high of $100,000 from a low point.

The real driving force behind the cryptocurrency market comes from massive inflows into US ETFs, the halving cycle, and institutional allocations, rather than micro-adjustments from a single country.

Short-term noise is inevitable, but it will not change the long-term upward trend. On the contrary, every such 'small scare' is a good opportunity for low-position accumulation.

(Disclaimer: This article is only a market opinion share and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks in the cryptocurrency market are extremely high; please judge independently and participate rationally.)