Tonight, all eyes will be focused on a delayed key data release. The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November, originally scheduled for release on December 5, has been delayed due to a government shutdown and is now set to be published at 21:30 Beijing time on December 16 (Tuesday). This report will also include supplementary information on the data from October.

📊 Market Expectations and Potential Impact

Currently, the market generally expects approximately 50,000 new jobs to be added in November, with the unemployment rate possibly inching up to 4.5%. This employment report is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and the future path of inflation, and it will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year. Analysts from Deutsche Asset Management even believe this could be the "only indicator" determining the direction of interest rates next year.

· If the data is stronger than expected: It may weaken market expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, potentially boosting the dollar in the short term and putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

· If the data is weaker than expected: It will reinforce the narrative of "economic cooling," potentially bringing forward interest rate cut expectations, theoretically benefiting non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies.

⚖️ Core Trading Strategy: Focus on Data and Key Price Levels

Considering the significant drop in the market before the data release, one can pay attention to a technical rebound recovery after the overselling during the day. However, the final direction of the market will depend on the deviation of tonight's data from expectations.

· Bitcoin (BTC): Short-term resistance levels to watch are 88000 and 90000; support levels to watch are 85500 and 84000.

· Ethereum (ETH): 3000 USD has become a key psychological resistance level; support levels to watch are 2900 and 2830.

The volatility triggered by non-farm data is often severe and rapid. It is recommended that investors strictly control their positions before and after the data release, being wary of sudden sharp fluctuations in the market due to unexpected results.

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