I believe there will be an impact, but it is likely to be limited.

The reason is simple:

1. Japan's 'interest rate hike' is essentially not tightening

Japan is not undergoing a tightening cycle like the Federal Reserve.

Japan's interest rate hike resembles a return from ultra-loose to normalcy—

Against the backdrop of inflation no longer being a one-time shock, the yen being weak in the long term, and the financial system being distorted by extreme looseness,

Pulling back the policy from ultra-loose to a slightly less loose stance.

The characteristic is:

Slow pace

Small magnitude

Low upper limit

Can stop at any time

Japan is doing this to stabilize the exchange rate, stabilize expectations, and stabilize the system.

Second, Japan's high debt has a very low risk of a blow-up

Many people reflexively think of 'Japanese government debt 250% GDP' when they hear about Japan raising interest rates.

But the problem is that Japan's debt structure is completely different from that of other countries:

Most of Japan's bonds are domestic debt

Mainly held by domestic institutions and the central bank

Government bonds have a very long duration (15, 30 years), and repricing is very slow

More importantly, the Bank of Japan and the finance ministry essentially form a consolidated balance sheet.

Interest costs are not pressed up all at once in the way of 'market interest rate × total debt'.

Therefore, what Japan is truly afraid of has never been 'paying a little more interest',

Rather, it is out-of-control interest rates and a loss of trust in central banks.

As long as the pace is controllable, a small increase in interest itself is not a problem.

Third, how much impact on US stocks?

The pricing anchor for US stocks has never been in Japan.

The core variable determining the trend of the US stock market remains:

The US economic and profit cycle

Trends in technology and capital expenditure

The policy path of the Federal Reserve

In contrast, the impact of Japan's interest rate hikes on global liquidity:

Will not suddenly withdraw funds

Will not trigger a large-scale capital inflow

More of a marginal, digestible adjustment

Moreover, the market has long reached a consensus on Japan's interest rate hike path:

Slow, shallow, controllable, with a very low ceiling.

This is not an 'unknown risk', but a known variable.

Fourth, the real black swan

There are only two scenarios, both of which are low probability:

Japan is forced to accelerate interest rate hikes

For example, the yen is out of control, inflation is clearly unanchored, and the central bank's credibility is damaged.

Japan's interest rate hikes + the US re-entering aggressive tightening

Note that the source of risk here is still in the US; Japan is just an overlay.

As long as these two things do not happen, Japan raising interest rates alone is unlikely to become the main risk for the global market.

Overall,

Japan is raising interest rates along the path of 'slow, shallow, controllable',

Provided the Federal Reserve does not turn hawkish again

It is unlikely that Japan's interest rate hikes in 2026 will become a systemic risk source for US stocks.#巨鲸动向