Non-farm payrolls: Expected to be only +40,000 (previous value +150,000). If true, this will be one of the lowest increases of the year, marking a cliff-like slowdown in labor market momentum.

· Unemployment rate: Expected to remain high at 4.40% (previous value 4.40%). Several months of an unemployment rate above 4% have formed a key crack in the narrative of a "soft landing."

Behind these two sets of numbers is an intense bull-bear battle:

· Bears (economic pessimists) believe: The data will confirm that the economy is rapidly losing speed, and the Federal Reserve must urgently turn to easing.

· Bulls (inflation stubbornists) believe: A slowdown in employment is a necessary cost to curb inflation, and the Fed should not surrender too early.

⚖️ Three scenario simulations: Which script does your strategy correspond to?

1. Data far weaker than expected (e.g., negative employment growth, soaring unemployment rate)

✅ Market reaction: “Recession trade” completely dominates! Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 will be significantly raised, the dollar will plunge, and U.S. Treasury yields will crash.

2. Data in line with expectations (employment around +40,000, unemployment rate 4.40%)

✅ Market reaction: Confirms the “moderate slowdown” script, and previously priced-in expectations for rate cuts may have “fully priced in”, potentially leading the market into short-term fluctuations.

3. Data stronger than expected (employment returns to over 100,000, unemployment rate decreases)

✅ Market reaction: The narrative of “the economy not landing” returns! Expectations for “higher for longer” interest rates will severely impact the market, the dollar will surge, and risk assets will come under pressure. $BTC