💸 The Federal Reserve just cut rates, yet Bitcoin has dropped below 88,000! It fell over 4.2% in 24 hours, with 180,000 people across the network facing liquidation. The liquidation amount is 584 million. Is this drop an opportunity or a trap? Financial experts provide insights below 👇

The international situation, trend signals, and the essence of trading are all dissected, allowing beginners to copy the thought process.

🌍 First, let's look at the big picture: Why didn't rate cuts save the market? The international situation defines capital flows.

Don't keep believing that 'rate cuts must lead to a rise'; current capital flows are already defined by these three points:

- The Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut' locks in liquidity: After a 25 basis point cut, Powell hinted that there would be no rate cut in January (CME data probability 75.6%). Core PCE is still at 2.7%, far from the target, and the 'flood' that the crypto market hoped for hasn't arrived.

- Economic data triggers a risk-averse wave: U.S. November job vacancies and service industry index exceeded expectations, suggesting persistent inflation. U.S. Treasury yields soared, with funds pouring into the dollar and gold, while Bitcoin faced 270 million in sell-offs within 24 hours.

- Clear signals of institutional withdrawal: BlackRock's IBIT has seen a net outflow for seven consecutive weeks (totaling 3.2 billion), and Standard Chartered has cut Bitcoin's year-end target from 200,000 to 100,000, pointing to 'exhaustion of large buyers'.

📈 Bitcoin Trend Breakdown: The 88,000 level has broken, where is the next stop?

From 126,000 on October 12 to 87,900, Bitcoin has erased this year's gains, three signals indicate the direction:

1. Short-term fluctuations: currently stuck between 85,000 and 89,000, RSI at 28 indicating oversold, but MACD green bars are expanding. Without catalysts like SEC loosening, the range-bound volatility is highly probable.

2. Long-short battle escalates: On-chain data shows that whales started bottom fishing in December, and retail small addresses are buying more as prices drop, volatility will remain high.

3. Support level revised down to 80,000: 'Bear flag pattern' confirmed, the next strong support is at 80,000 (200-day moving average), a break could head straight for 73,800. However, the 21-day SMA is not broken, indicating that we are not in a bear market yet.

⚠️ Warning: 83% of the liquidation wave on the 15th is long positions, with over 40% of leverage at 50x! The current leverage ratio is 17%, don't blindly bottom out in the oversold area!

🎯 The essence of financial trading: 3 core principles are more important than predicting trends.

Trading earns 'cognitive money', these three points are more important than predicting trends:

- The essence is a probability game: No one can predict accurately, even Standard Chartered cut from 200,000 to 100,000. Ordinary investors control risk better with 'stop loss below 82,000' than trying to guess the bottom.

- Risk precedes reward: The 270 million liquidation on the 15th was all retail investors 'buying more as prices drop'. It is recommended to allocate 1%-3% of idle funds, with a single asset position not exceeding 20%.

- Match cognitive understanding with position: If you don't understand Federal Reserve policy, don't touch leverage; if you don't understand 'bear flag pattern', don't trade short-term. Retail investors can't compete with the information gap, long-term holding is more secure.

✨ Finally, here's a practical suggestion

✅ Short-term: Absolutely do not bottom fish! Wait for stability at 89,000 or a drop below 85,000 before acting, currently observing with a light position;

✅ Long-term: Acknowledge the future of crypto and consider dollar-cost averaging, avoid 'all in';

✅ Mindset: Fear Index at 12 (extreme fear), is a contrarian window but needs to wait for stabilization, don't 'catch the falling knife'.

ps: If you really can't control it and have no time, it's also fine to hand it over to professionals, continuously taking orders to help the brothers earn luxurious pork knuckle meals!

Are you currently holding a position or in cash? Let's discuss in the comments, one lucky winner will receive (Cryptocurrency Risk Control Manual) 📚

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