1. In the past 24 hours, influenced by US tech stocks (especially in the AI sector) reporting below expectations, the Nasdaq has pulled back, and the crypto market has also declined. The global crypto market cap has shrunk by about 2.5% to $3.04 trillion;
2. Tonight at 21:30, the long-delayed US non-farm data will be released, coupled with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations (December 19), which poses another challenge for risk assets;
PS: The market generally expects a cooling job market. If the data is unexpectedly strong, it could crush interest rate cut expectations and trigger further sell-offs; if the data is weak, it may be beneficial for liquidity but could trigger recession trading.
3. The market bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0.75% this week (December 19) with a probability as high as 98%. The strengthening yen may trigger carry trade unwinding, posing a potential liquidity risk to the crypto market;
4. Ripple announced the expansion of the upcoming stablecoin RLUSD to Layer 2 networks such as Base and Optimism through the Wormhole protocol;
5. MicroStrategy purchased 10,645 BTC, valued at 980 million USD, bringing total holdings to 671,268 BTC.
6. Trump is considering pardoning the founder of Samourai Wallet to promote the development of privacy tools;
7. Harmonix TGE will launch on Hyperliquid on December 18;
8. JPMorgan officially launched a tokenized currency market fund named 'My Onchain Net' on the Ethereum mainnet, marking a shift for traditional financial giants (TradFi) from 'experimentation' to 'productization' in their RWA deployment on public chains, benefiting the institutional-grade compliance layer of the Ethereum ecosystem;
9. The on-chain trading platform Aster announced the launch of 'Shield Mode,' aimed at protecting high-frequency on-chain traders from sandwich (MEV) attacks;
10. HashKey Hong Kong IPO pricing and plans to start trading on 12/17;
11. @AetherGamesInc another gamefi indicates it is shutting down operations;
12. CIRCLE acquires Interop Labs, including the team behind Axelar and its intellectual property;
13. 1011 insider giant whale's long position continues to incur losses, currently with a floating loss of 50 million USD, holding a position size of 680 million USD;
14. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has overtaken Kevin Hasset in the probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, rising to first. On the prediction market Polymarket, Warsh's probability of being nominated as Federal Reserve Chair by Trump rose from 7% to 48%, while the nomination probability of Kevin Hasset, Director of the National Economic Council, dropped from a high of 85% to 42%.
15. MetaMask is continuing to push for multi-chain expansion, now natively supporting the Bitcoin network;
[Market Analysis] Bitcoin was forcibly pulled down by U.S. stocks last night, dropping to around 85000. The 90000 USD level, which held for many days, has finally been effectively broken, currently hovering around 86000, with no support signals at the 4-hour level.
This week will be the most important week, with non-farm payrolls tonight and Japan's interest rate hike day on the 19th. There will be intense fluctuations this week, and after this week, panic sentiment will continue to dissipate, delaying a real rebound until January.
What can be done now is to reduce leverage to take risks, allowing oneself to survive.
[Risk Reminder] Digital asset volatility is high, and risks are extreme. Please participate cautiously, avoid full margin calls, and reject loan leverage;
