📊 Federal Reserve Meeting Forecast for January 2026
After the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate last week to the new target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, attention now turns to the next meeting.
* Market Expectations (Temporary Pause): Current probabilities strongly priced in by traders indicate that the central bank is in a position to freeze the target interest rate, meaning to leave it unchanged at the January meeting.
* Pause Probabilities: The probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in January is around 75% to 80%.
* Rate Cut Probabilities: The probability of an additional cut of 25 basis points (bps) in January is estimated at about 20% to 25%.
In summary: Markets are likely expecting the Federal Reserve to take a temporary "break" in the rate-cutting cycle during January, keeping the interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.
Ultimately, the Fed's decision in January will primarily depend on how well the U.S. economy meets two main objectives: inflation rates and maximum employment in the labor market. What do you think?
