Crypto friends, tonight at 21:30, the U.S. December non-farm employment report is about to make a shocking debut. This is likely to be the biggest 'eye of the storm' in the cryptocurrency market before the end of the year, and a feast of volatility is about to begin! At this moment, are you staring at the screen, refreshing the non-farm forecast while watching Bitcoin's price fluctuate wildly? Don't panic, as an old hand in the crypto world, today I will help you clear the fog, understand the logic behind it, and avoid the volatility traps.

Non-farm data: Keep a close eye on these three core indicators

Many people focus on the 'newly added employment figures' when looking at the non-farm payrolls, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. What really influences the direction of the cryptocurrency market are these three data points' 'combined effects'.

  • New non-farm employment figures: This is the most watched 'showpiece.' The market's forecast is 180,000, higher than November's 150,000. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, such as over 250,000, it indicates that the U.S. labor market is heating up; if it is below 100,000, that would indicate a clear cooling.

  • Unemployment rate: The current U.S. unemployment rate has risen to a near-high of 4.5%, and the market expects it to remain unchanged. If it breaks through 4.7%, the Federal Reserve will have to worry about economic cooling, and expectations for interest rate cuts will instantly rise.

  • Average hourly wage growth: This is the 'vanguard' of inflation. If the wage growth exceeds 4%, it means the risk of a wage inflation spiral remains, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates; if it is below 3.5%, the door to interest rate cuts opens.

The combination of these three data points directly determines the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move, while interest rate expectations directly determine the scale of funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market. In simple terms, the expectation of interest rate cuts is good news for the cryptocurrency market, while the expectation of interest rate hikes is bad news.

Three scenario projections: How non-farm data influences the cryptocurrency market.

Currently, the U.S. labor market is in a state of 'cooling but not collapsing.' The November non-farm payrolls show that job growth mainly comes from defensive industries such as healthcare and government, while cyclical industries such as manufacturing and construction are showing signs of fatigue. Based on this, we project three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Data significantly exceeds expectations (new jobs >250,000, unemployment rate <4.3%, hourly wage >4%)

This is the 'nightmare scenario' for the cryptocurrency market. Data will directly shatter the market's fantasy of interest rate cuts in early 2026, even sparking speculation about a 'restart of interest rate hikes.' The historical lesson is painful; after the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in September 2025, Bitcoin plummeted from $90,000 to $85,000 within an hour, with $2 billion in positions liquidated, nearly $1 billion of which were long positions. Under high interest rates, cryptocurrencies, as 'high beta assets,' will be prioritized for sale, holding costs will rise, and leveraged funds will be forced to close positions, with funds flowing into risk-free assets like government bonds. If this scenario occurs, Bitcoin may test the $80,000 support level, with altcoins likely falling more than mainstream coins.

Scenario 2: Data falls short of expectations (new jobs <120,000, unemployment rate >4.7%, hourly wage <3.5%)

This is a 'bullish scenario', but don't celebrate too early. After the data is released, the market will quickly price in 'interest rate cut expectations,' and Bitcoin may rapidly rise by 10% - 15%. However, such increases are often 'short-lived.' When the non-farm payrolls in June 2025 fell short of expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged to $75,000 but fell back to $68,000 within three days. The reason is that the market has partially digested the expectations of interest rate cuts, and a single data point is unlikely to change the trend of a moderately cooling labor market; intrinsic factors in cryptocurrency may quickly overshadow the impact of non-farm data. Therefore, even if there is a surge, one should be alert to the risk of a correction.

Scenario 3: Data meets expectations (new jobs 150,000 - 200,000, unemployment rate around 4.5%, hourly wage 3.7% - 4%)

This is the most likely 'neutral scenario,' and it also tests one's mentality the most. After the data is released, the cryptocurrency market may experience initial fluctuations followed by stabilization, with algorithmic trading causing slight volatility, and then the market realizing that the data has not changed policy expectations, leading prices back to the fluctuation range. At this time, the real risk is 'market noise,' such as social media amplifying messages about 'exchange contract liquidations' to induce retail investors to follow suit. At this time, maintaining rationality is crucial, do not be swayed by short-term volatility.

Tonight's operation guide: Three main principles to ensure safety.

The biggest risk on non-farm payrolls night is not the data itself, but human greed and fear. Here are three practical suggestions to help you navigate tonight smoothly:

Leverage positions must be reduced.

Historical data shows that the volatility of cryptocurrencies on non-farm payrolls night is 3 - 5 times higher than usual. Even if you are confident in the data, do not go all in on leverage. During the liquidation in September 2025, many old players, because they were 'certain of favorable data,' leveraged 5 times and ultimately got liquidated. It is recommended to reduce leverage to below 1x before the data is released or to clear leveraged positions and only hold spot positions.

Do not blindly 'bet on direction.'

Many people like to 'bet on one-sided markets' before non-farm data, going all in on long or short positions. However, the 'unexpectedness' of non-farm data is extremely high, and predictions from professional institutions often deviate. Before the non-farm data in November last year, 90% of analysts predicted 'weak data,' but it significantly exceeded expectations, causing many shorts to get squeezed. The best strategy tonight is to 'wait for clear signals' and act after the data is released and market sentiment stabilizes, about an hour later.

Focus on long-term logic, ignore short-term fluctuations.

For ordinary investors, the volatility on non-farm payrolls night is just 'short-term noise.' What truly determines the long-term trend of the cryptocurrency market are core factors such as continuous inflow of ETF funds, the implementation of blockchain technology, and clear regulatory policies. If your position is based on long-term logic, even if there is a 20% fluctuation tonight, do not panic and sell at a loss. Since 2024, Bitcoin has experienced 12 periods of volatility on non-farm payrolls night, ultimately still trending upwards.

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