Long time no see! Tonight, the non-farm payrolls are going to release a "defective" double report!
Brothers, pay attention, at 9:30 PM tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor is going to put on a historical show: simultaneously releasing the non-farm payroll reports for October and November! What's even more outrageous is that the October report is a "censored version"—only employment numbers will be available, while the unemployment rate data is completely missing, which is a first since 1948.
Why is it so chaotic? It's all due to the mess caused by the previous U.S. government shutdown; the data simply wasn't fully collected. So tonight, the market is not just looking at the data, but also whether Powell's constant mention of "downside risks" will turn into reality. 进币安聊天室聊聊行情
What is the market betting on?
The focus is entirely on the November data. Currently, the market expects only about 40,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%. It's important to note that prior annual data has been significantly revised down by 911,000 jobs, indicating that the market is already weaker than anticipated. If tonight's data is even worse, it will confirm the cooling of the job market, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next year will be ramped up, putting pressure on the dollar, while risk assets are likely to enjoy a wild ride.
As for the defective October data, the key is whether negative growth will appear. Any unexpected negative values will douse the market's mood with cold water.
In summary: Tonight's data will definitely be chaotic, but it is also a crucial window to glimpse the Federal Reserve's policy bottom line for next year. Weak data bets on rate cuts; strong data reignites expectations. Buckle up, the volatility may not be small. 🐃 Ethereum chain P UPP IES is worth paying attention to!
Are you ready to watch the market? Do you think the data will be "a timely help" or "adding insult to injury"? $ETH #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察
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