We are just a few weeks away from the end of 2025, which was a historic year for Bitcoin.
In that year, Bitcoin saw the best institutional adoption in its history and broke a record by reaching one hundred and twenty-five thousand dollars for the first time.
However, despite that, Bitcoin did not stay above the one hundred and twenty-five thousand dollar level for long and fell below it.
Therefore, some wonder: will it return above one hundred thousand dollars at least once again before the end of the new year?
Bitcoin's performance in 2025
Bitcoin started this year at around 93,700 dollars. In the first three months, it dropped to 76,600 dollars.
But during the second and third quarters of the year, Bitcoin began to recover and reached 126 thousand dollars.
And with the beginning of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin had dropped to 80,600 dollars, and at the time of writing this article, its price is 90 thousand dollars.
Meaning that if Bitcoin closes this year at this price, 2025 will be a negative year.
Therefore, everyone hopes that Bitcoin will close above 100 thousand dollars to make 2025 positive, and Bitcoin will start 2026 positively.
But what is the status and expectations of the market?
Currently, the markets place the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100 thousand dollars before the end of 2025 at 28%.
While the market places the probability of Bitcoin closing this year at 95 thousand dollars at 54%, this would not be the worst scenario, as Bitcoin would close in this way with at least weak positivity.
But the worst-case scenario is that Bitcoin closes 2025 at a price of 80 thousand dollars, where the market assesses the probability of that at 22%.
And if this happens, 2025 will be the first negative year for Bitcoin since 2022, which witnessed the FTX collapse and the catastrophic Luna collapse.
In the end, positivity in the market still exists, especially with the increased adoption from institutions and governments.
