Ladies and gentlemen, at nine thirty tonight, the market will reach a critical juncture.
Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the non-farm payroll data will be released in a "two-in-one" format—both the November data and a revised, incomplete October statistic will be announced. This is equivalent to revealing two cards at once.
What does this mean for our positions?
The current market is in a period of macro narrative reshaping. Following the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve last week, Powell's statements have hinted at downward risks in the labor market. Therefore, the core of tonight's focus is to verify: is the economy really weakening?
Understanding the following three points will help you respond calmly:
1. Data may point to weakness
The market expects approximately 50,000 new jobs in November; if true, this will be seen as a significant slowdown signal. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%. The logic here is: the weaker the data, the more reason the Federal Reserve has to continue its easing policies next year. For the crypto space, this could become a catalyst for the return of liquidity.
2. Beware of data "inflation"
It should be clear that the October data has significant errors due to statistical issues. Therefore, regardless of how the numbers come out tonight, one should maintain a sense of clarity. Do not make impulsive trades based on a single data point; that is more akin to gambling than rational decision-making.
3. The narrative the market truly expects
Currently, the market is yearning for a "soft landing" story. As long as the data does not plummet drastically (for example, falling into negative growth) but only slows down moderately, it will be enough to reinforce expectations of an "interest rate cut cycle" being established, thereby boosting risk assets.
My suggestion is:
There is no need to get bogged down in specific numbers; rather, focus on the gap between the data and expectations.
As long as the outcome does not exhibit extreme deterioration, it may be interpreted by the market as a complete unwinding of bearish sentiment, thus solidifying the narrative of liquidity easing.
Please remain calm and let logic, not emotion, guide your decisions @bit杰哥 .
