🚨 JAPAN’S RATE DECISION THIS WEEK IS ALL BUT CONFIRMED
📊 Polymarket assigns a 98% probability to a 25 bps rate hike, lifting the Bank of Japan policy rate from 0.50% → 0.75% — a level not seen since 1995.
Why this matters to global markets 👇
• Higher Japanese rates = stronger JPY
• Carry trades unwind
• Dollar liquidity tightens
• Risk assets come under pressure
📉 Bitcoin’s history during BoJ tightening cycles hasn’t been kind: • Mar 2024: −23%
• Jul 2024: −26%
• Jan 2025: −31%
The real risk isn’t the hike.
It’s the forward guidance.
Markets already expect the move —
what they don’t know is how fast Japan plans to continue.
So the key question remains 👀
Was the recent drop just a shakeout…
or is this only the first leg lower?
