RATE DECISION THIS WEEK IS ALMOST LOCKED IN
Polymarket now prices a 98% probability of a 25 bps BoJ hike, taking Japan’s policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75% — a level last seen in 1995.
Why this matters to markets:
• Higher Japan rates strengthen the JPY
• Yen carry trades start to unwind
• Global dollar liquidity tightens
• Risk assets come under pressure
Bitcoin history around BoJ tightening is ugly:
• Mar 2024: −23%
• Jul 2024: −26%
• Jan 2025: −31%
The hike itself is not the real risk.
The real trigger is guidance — how fast Japan plans to move next.
So the question is simple:
Was the recent drop the final shakeout…
or is another leg down still loading
