Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll: The probability of a rise followed by a fall is relatively high.
From the forward-looking data, the overall employment data still shows resilience, and in the short term, it is likely to be interpreted by the market as 'acceptable'. Positive sentiment may be released first, driving risk assets to surge quickly.
However, if wage growth and employment strength remain high, inflation pressure will be difficult to completely alleviate, and interest rate cut expectations will be revised again. The repricing after emotional recovery may actually trigger a pullback more easily.
The essence of this type of market behavior is:
Emotion leads first, followed by logic correcting itself.
Non-Farm Payroll tends to create volatility rather than a one-sided trend, and the structure of rising first and then falling needs to be guarded against.
