🚨JAPAN’S RATE DECISION THIS WEEK IS ALMOST LOCKED IN.
📊Polymarket gives a 98% probability to a 25 bps hike, which would take the BoJ policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, a level not seen since 1995.
Why markets care:
• Higher Japan rates strengthen JPY
• Carry trades unwind
• Dollar liquidity tightens
• Risk assets feel the pressure
📉Bitcoin’s track record around BoJ tightening isn’t great:
• Mar 2024: −23%
• Jul 2024: −26%
• Jan 2025: −31%
The key question isn’t the hike itself.
It’s the guidance and how fast Japan plans to go next.
Was the recent drop the shakeout…
or is another move coming?👀
