Bitcoin 'will fall below $70,000' due to Japan's aggressive stance, say macroeconomic analysts
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Key findings:
The Bank of Japan's monetary tightening may pressure Bitcoin by draining global liquidity.
Macroeconomic and technical signals converge on a target drop of $70,000.
Bitcoin BTCUSD may face a continued correction toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with the anticipated interest rate hike on December 19, according to various macroeconomic-focused analysts.
BOJ's steps preceded corrections of 20 to 30% of Bitcoin
According to data highlighted by AndrewBTC, all increases in the Bank of Japan's interest rates since 2024 coincided with drops in Bitcoin's price exceeding 20%.
In a post on X on Saturday, the analyst highlighted drops of approximately 23% in BTC's price in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.
AndrewBTC warned that similar downward risks may arise again if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates on Friday. A recent Reuters survey showed that most economists expect another rate hike at the December monetary policy meeting.
Thesis focused on Japan's role in global liquidity
In the past, increases in the Bank of Japan's interest rates strengthened the Japanese yen, making it more expensive to borrow and invest in higher-risk assets. This often forced investors to unwind so-called "yen carry trades," reducing liquidity in global markets.
With the reduction of liquidity, Bitcoin came under pressure as investors reduced leverage and cut exposure during risk-off periods.
Analyst EX stated that BTC "will fall below $70,000" under these macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin's bearish flag targets the same range of $70,000
Bitcoin's daily chart also showed technical warning signs, with price action consolidating within a classic bearish flag formation.
The pattern formed after BTC's strong drop in the $105,000 to $110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow ascending consolidation channel. These structures typically signal temporary pauses before the trend continues.
A confirmed break below the lower trendline of the flag could trigger a new drop, with projections pointing to the $70,000 to $72,500 zone. Various analysts, including James Check and Sellén, shared similar bearish targets last month.
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