The first force is slow and relentless. This is the Power Law. The mathematical trajectory that pulls the price up for years and does not know the word 'expiration'.
The second force is fast and mechanical. These are options and gamma. And it has a deadline.
According to the Power Law, everything looks extremely simple. At a price of about $85, Bitcoin is trading 27% below its fair trajectory. The model gives $118,010. This is not overheating. This is compression.
Why isn't the price going there right now? Because the market is stuck.
• Below $85k there is a powerful put wall that acts like gravity.
• The total gamma is negative, around -$117 million.
• Below $85k, dealers are forced to aggressively hedge downwards.
• Above ~$90 800, there is no positive gamma, so the upside stalls.
• As a result, volatility is suppressed, and the price is trapped in a range.
This is not a market without demand. This is a market tied up by options.
The key here is timing. Gamma is expiring. Power Law is not.
The timing is as follows:
• On December 19, about 17% of the entire gamma expires. The first weakening. The range starts to leak, and volatility returns.
• On December 26, already 46-47% of the entire gamma expires. Almost half of the dealer positions disappear overnight. This is no longer noise; it's a structural reset.
Historically, such pin releases become the starting point of a new trend. Not because of 'news'. But because the mechanical anchor that held the price disappears.
The conclusion is simple. The spring is compressed but fixed until December 26. Until then, $85k remains a level that the market respects.
And then the unwinding begins. And the road to $118k by Power Law finally stops being blocked.
