For years, U.S. policy assumed China was fragile — one crisis away from collapse.
Trade wars, tariffs, export controls, and political pressure were meant to slow Beijing down.
That assumption now looks outdated.
Despite tariffs reaching as high as 145% at their peak, recent U.S.–China trade negotiations ended largely in a return to the status quo, with Washington even rolling back some export restrictions once seen as non-negotiable.
China didn’t blink.
Why China Still Holds Structural Power
China’s strength today is not just scale — it’s control over critical supply chains:
Dominates rare earth minerals, essential for EVs, defense, satellites, and electronics
Supplies ingredients for hundreds of essential medicines globally
Leads in electric vehicles, batteries, solar power, and robotics
Controls much of the commercial drone market
Rapidly scaling capabilities in AI, quantum tech, and advanced manufacturing
While the U.S. retains advantages in cutting-edge AI chips and military power, China has shown it can adapt, substitute, and scale domestically when blocked.
The Strategic Shift
The idea that the U.S. must “beat China before China beats the U.S.” is losing credibility.
China is no longer just catching up — it is building parallel systems:
Technology
Energy
Manufacturing
Defense
And it is doing so at a speed few economies can match.
The Reality Going Forward
China still faces real challenges:
Property sector stress
Deflationary pressures
Aging population
Youth unemployment
But betting on collapse has repeatedly failed.
The global landscape is shifting from dominance vs defeat to long-term rivalry and coexistence.
Bottom Line
China is not disappearing as a global power.
It is entrenching itself.
Markets, policymakers, and investors who continue to underestimate this shift risk being positioned for a world that no longer exists.
📌 In geopolitics — as in markets — denial is not a strategy.