The demographic bomb and the end of the "easy money" era: How the collapse of fertility rates threatens the future of the global economy?

At the heart of every economic and political crisis we witness today lies a simple and troubling truth that is constantly being ignored: the collapse of birth rates. The chart showing that the fertility rate in the United States reached its lowest level ever in 2023 is not just a statistic; it is a symptom of a deeper illness affecting the fabric of our societies. It is not just a "Western phenomenon"; it has become a global crisis now extending to China, the former engine of demographic growth.

This collapse is not just a social issue, but the greatest challenge facing the future of the global economy, closely linked to the financial system we live under: the era of unlimited "fiat money."

1. First: The crisis - when societies lose their "faith in the future"

Why is fertility collapsing? The sharp decline in birth rates is a symptom of a deep dysfunction in the "factory of society." It reflects the reality that people are losing faith in the future. When the present is costly and the future is uncertain, the decision to have children becomes an economic and psychological luxury that many cannot afford.

Global implications: This is no longer a problem limited to Germany or Japan. China, which once enforced a one-child policy, now faces a demographic collapse that could see it lose 20% of its population over the next 30 years. This shift will create shockwaves in the global economy, as China responds with aggressive increases in support for its exports to counter internal deflationary pressures.

2. Second: The failure of traditional solutions - from Augustus Caesar to modern China

It is surprising that the political systems' reaction to this crisis has not changed for thousands of years, despite its repeated failures.

The arsenal of failed incentives: Governments have tried everything: child benefits, tax incentives for marriage, and other financial temptations. But all these measures failed to achieve any sustainable change.

History repeats itself: The Roman Emperor Augustus used the same tools (financial incentives and tax penalties) to counter declining populations in Italy, and failed. Today, China is repeating the same steps, offering child benefits while kindergartens close their doors. It is a testament to the persistence of political systems in repeating failed choices.

3. Third: The hidden driver that is ignored - "Fiat Money Shock"

Here we reach the crux of the argument. The fertility crisis cannot be understood in isolation from the monetary system we have lived in since 1971.

The end of the "gold anchor": When President Nixon ended the dollar's tie to gold, he not only freed the currency but unleashed an unlimited capacity to create credit and debt. Money was no longer tied to real scarcity but became a political tool that could be manipulated.

Withdrawing purchasing power from the future: Governments have begun using their central banks to finance their perpetual deficits, a process that is nothing more than "withdrawing future purchasing power into the present" to create temporary financial margins. The inevitable result is: massive debt, asset bubbles, and ongoing inflation.

Real estate: from a consumer good to a financial tool: The immediate result was the transformation of assets, especially real estate, from consumer goods to financial tools and "piggy banks" to protect wealth from currency devaluation.

Life as a scarce resource: It has become impossible for young families today to buy a home without sinking into massive debt. "Dual income" has become a necessity, not an option. In this "credit-based economy," time has become the scarcest resource. Children are now in direct competition with careers, income, and retirement planning.

4. Fourth: The disconnection between generations

The welfare state, funded by debt, has led to a structural change in the social contract.

The state replaces the family: In the past, ensuring old age came from giving birth to children who would care for their parents. Today, the state has taken on this role, funded by contributions from the current working generation.

The outcome: The "intergenerational link" is dissolving both economically and emotionally. There is no longer an economic necessity for large families, and the emotional importance of family has diminished.

In short, the collapse of fertility rates is not just an individual choice, but a necessary outcome of a financial system that has turned life itself into a "scarce resource." The era of "fiat money" has created a toxic incentive structure that makes having children an extremely difficult economic decision.

The solution is not more subsidies, but reforming the financial system itself. A return to "sound money" could be the key not only to economic recovery but also to social recovery. This would restore the value of savings and allow people to gain purchasing power over time, giving them the most important resource of all: time. Time they can dedicate to their families, building a future they can believe in.

#انهيار_سكاني #الديموغرافيا #المال_الورق y#البيتكوين #الديون