The employment and unemployment report for November 2025 was released today, December 16, 2025.
1. Data summary:
Unemployment rate: Rose to 4.6%.
Forecast: It was expected to rise to 4.5%.
Previous reading September 2025: 4.4%.
Since the unemployment rate has risen and came in higher than expected, this indicates that the U.S. labor market is slowing down more than anticipated.
2. Its impact on the cryptocurrency market:
Weak labor market directly affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, which is key to its impact on cryptocurrencies:
Impact: 🟢 Generally positive
☀. Increased expectations for interest rate cuts:
Analysis: Rising unemployment indicates that the economy is weakening. This increases pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stop its hawkish stance and begin cutting interest rates more quickly to support the economy and avoid a deep recession.
The result on crypto: The expectations for interest rate cuts are considered positive for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Lowering interest rates reduces the attractiveness of the US dollar and fixed-income assets like bonds, increasing the search for yield in alternative and volatile assets.
☀. Weak US dollar:
Analysis: Expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a weakened value of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The result on crypto: The inverse relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin means that a weaker dollar tends to support Bitcoin prices.
☀. Increased liquidity:
Analysis: Easing in monetary policy means increased cash liquidity in the global financial system.
The result on crypto: This liquidity usually flows into risk markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Note:
Although the data was theoretically supportive of cryptocurrencies as it increases expectations for interest rate cuts, it should be noted that the cryptocurrency market may experience short-term volatility immediately after the report is released, as markets react to the data before settling in the long term.
