"Brothers, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin that we are familiar with may really be dead." Analyst Benjamin Cowen dropped this line during his latest livestream, leaving the chat room in silence. Old players recalled the bone-chilling winters of 2018 and 2022, while newcomers stared at their positions bought at the high in early 2025, feeling real panic for the first time.
The market temperature is dropping sharply. The price of Bitcoin has rapidly fallen nearly 30% from its historical peak of about $126,270 in October 2025, reaching a new seven-month low of about $89,000 at one point. What is even more unsettling for investors is that this decline is accompanied by a suffocating perspective: the 'four-year cycle' theory, which has precisely defined every bull-bear transition of Bitcoin, may have failed, and we may be standing at the beginning of a long bear market.
01 The Failed Cycle and the End of the 'Slow Bull'
For many years, the Bitcoin market has followed an almost sacred rhythm: a halving approximately every four years, followed by a bull market peak 12-18 months later, and then entering a long bear market. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, this pattern has proven to be reliable. According to this script, after the fourth halving in April 2024, the market should ideally celebrate in 2025. On the surface, Bitcoin did indeed set a new high in October 2025.
However, the texture of this 'bull market' is completely different. It lacks the previous period's late-cycle explosive frenzy. Instead, it is characterized by a 'slow bull': price increases are moderate, volatility has significantly decreased, and retail investors have not surged in large numbers; the legendary 'altcoin season' has not arrived at all. When the market lacks that kind of collective enthusiasm, the peak often arrives quietly, while the subsequent pullback can be fast and fierce.
Kowen pointed out that a key technical signal is flashing red: Bitcoin has closed below the 50-week moving average for several consecutive weeks. Historically, this is usually a significant signal for the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market. He believes that the current behavior of the market completely aligns with the patterns observed in the early stages of historical bear markets; Bitcoin is not simply undergoing a correction but may have already entered a classic bear market phase.
02 The Three New Forces that 'Kill' the Cycle
What makes this time 'different'? The cycle theory has not completely failed, but its external manifestations have been thoroughly rewritten by several powerful new forces.
First is the double-edged sword of institutionalization. The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 is a revolution; it introduces unprecedented stable institutional capital flows but also changes the rules of the game. Institutional funds pursue stability and risk management, and their large-scale buying drives up prices while lowering volatility, creating a 'slow bull'. However, once the macro wind changes, these massive, homogeneous ETF holdings can quickly turn from 'ballast' to 'collective selling'. Data shows that after the market turned in October 2025, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of tens of billions of dollars in a short period, exacerbating the market's panic.
Secondly, the dominance of macro liquidity is increasing. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin's four-year cycle still exists, but the main driving force has shifted from a simple halving narrative to more complex political factors and the global liquidity environment. Currently, global monetary policy is at a highly differentiated stage: the Bank of Japan may begin a rate hike cycle, draining global liquidity; while the path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is fraught with uncertainty. This 'non-unified liquidity environment' is particularly unfavorable for risk assets. The unwinding of yen carry trades is considered by analysts to be one of the main macro drivers of the current market decline.
Finally, there is the deterioration of the market's internal structure. On-chain data shows that long-term holders ('old money') and Bitcoin miners are continuously selling. At the same time, the overall network has seen a significant decline in computing power, with reports suggesting this may be related to the closure of some mining facilities, forcing miners to sell Bitcoin to cover costs, creating additional selling pressure. This internal selling pressure resonates with external tightening of liquidity, amplifying the market's decline.
03 Bear Market Survival Rules: From Pursuing Alpha to Guarding Beta
If Kowen's prediction comes true, what we face may not just be a short-term adjustment, but a structural bear market measured in 'months' or even 'years'. In such a market, the aggressive strategy of 'finding a hundredfold coin' during past bull markets is akin to playing with fire. Survival and preserving strength become the top priority.
The primary principle is to reassess asset quality. Kowen sharply pointed out: 'If the altcoins you invest in have been devaluing against BTC, that is not an investment, but a liability.' In a bear market, most altcoins will decline far more than Bitcoin. Concentrating assets in the most core and liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is the first step in defense.
A more crucial step is to allocate to genuine 'safe havens' — this is not just about holding cash, but about finding value-stable assets that can generate returns within the crypto ecosystem. This is precisely the value of decentralized stablecoins like @usddio. During market panic sell-offs, the demand for stablecoins typically surges. However, not all stablecoins are reliable; historical lessons indicate that certain complex algorithmic stablecoins can seriously deviate from their peg in extreme market conditions, triggering catastrophic chain liquidations.
@usddio represents 'stability breeds trust', which is a direct response to such risks. Through transparent mechanisms like over-collateralization, it strives to maintain the absolute stability of value under any market conditions. In a bull market, it may be your tool for gaining profits; in a bear market, it serves as the ultimate guardian of your assets and the 'ammunition reserve' for future buy-ins. Holding it means building a 'safe zone' in your crypto portfolio that is not eroded by market fluctuations.
04 The Darkness Before Dawn and Future Layouts
A bear market is not the end of the world; it is a necessary process of market metabolism. Kowen also pointed out that if Bitcoin confirms its peak in the fourth quarter of this year, the next attractive long-term investment opportunity may appear in the summer of 2026. Historical data shows that it is not uncommon for Bitcoin to retract more than 70% from its peak during a bear market.
For investors who can traverse cycles, the most important thing at this stage is to maintain patience, control positions, and accumulate knowledge. Utilize the market downturn to delve into projects with solid infrastructure and healthy cash flows. At the same time, allocate a portion of assets to robust protocols like @usddio, obtaining stable returns through mechanisms like staking, allowing funds to continue generating cash flow even during the 'hibernation period'.
While everyone is discussing whether the cycle has died, the true winners are quietly preparing for the next cycle. The market rewards only those who remain rational in the coldest nights and who prepare the firewood in advance.
#USDD stability breeds trust
During a bull market, everyone loves to tell growth stories; when a bear market arrives, it becomes apparent that 'stability' itself is the rarest and most powerful narrative. In uncertain times, trust those who defend their promises with mechanisms rather than slogans.
