I am Bai Yue! I just saw a big news story while scrolling through the news, and upon looking at the ETH chart, I feel that the market may not be calm tonight until tomorrow. We are going all in, let’s be direct!
News: A thunderous sound from across the ocean
The news just came out that former President Trump, who is also a popular candidate for the next presidential election, will deliver a national speech at 10 AM Eastern Time (which is tomorrow morning for us). This timing is very subtle, as it coincides with the one-year anniversary of his potential return to the White House, and now his approval ratings are dropping, and the U.S. economy is feeling a chill.
What has he done in the past year? Increased tariffs, quarreled with allies, made big moves domestically. In this speech, he will definitely boast about himself and sketch out a big picture of next year's policies. This relates to dollar policy and global trade sentiment, do you think it has anything to do with our crypto circle? It has a huge relation! Speeches from such high-level figures can easily stir global capital nerves, either hedging or seeking new opportunities. Any unexpected statements about economic policies could become a 'catalyst' for short-term market fluctuations.
Technical analysis: The 4-hour chart of ETH looks a bit 'sickly'.
Looking at our ETH again, the current price is hovering around $2953. Let's look at the chart:
Trend is bearish: On the 4-hour chart, that yellow-white dual line formed a 'death cross' below the zero axis, which is a typical bearish signal, indicating that short-term momentum is weak.
Heavy pressure: The two hurdles above are very clear; $3100 is the recent rebound resistance level, and $3300 is an even stronger resistance area. It will be difficult to push up without significant positive news and volume!
A glimmer of hope: The MACD indicator shows it is already 'close to oversold'. What does it mean? It means that the drop has been a bit sharp in the short term, and technically there is a need for a rebound repair. The lines below also mark several support levels, so it doesn't mean it will just plummet straight down.
But for us retail investors, don't panic, understand the position:
If you are heavily invested: Take the opportunity to reduce positions and lower risks during any rebound towards 3100. Don't treat the rebound as a reversal.
If you are lightly invested or short: At the current price level (around 2950) and if it can later retest lower support marked by lines, you can start to gradually position with small amounts, hoping for a technical rebound.
Key points: Watch for 3100 above, if it can't hold steady, it remains weak. Looking below, pay attention to the support area marked with lines in the chart; if it stabilizes there, there might be a decent rebound.
Bai Yue's personal opinion:
My feeling is that the short-term turmoil of the 'news front' may encounter the weakness of the 'technical front', and the overall market is still leaning towards volatility or even pressure. Trump's speech content is unclear, and the market will likely choose to watch or hedge first, which may suppress the buying of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
From tonight to tomorrow, watch more and act less, let Trump's 'mouth' and the market's 'feet' run for a while. Although the overall market outlook is bearish, it is close to the technically oversold area, blindly selling off and blindly bottom-fishing are not advisable.
