Brothers, ETH has been stuck in this narrow gap of 100 points for a whole day now, neither up nor down, making people sleepy. But don't fall asleep — the 'golden cross' on the chart may be a gentle trap, and those big whales on-chain have secretly turned their guns. This stagnant horizontal movement, is it building up for a rise, or the last 'trap' before a crash? Whether you are anxious with coins in hand or waiting with USDT for opportunities, this analysis can give you a cold splash of water and a reminder.
Technical analysis wake up: Don't just look at the golden cross, look at the volume!
Don't be fooled by that small golden cross on the water. Look closely, the price is sluggish, yet the volume bars below are getting shorter, what does this indicate? No one is genuinely putting real money in to buy! The 2982 level is like an iron lid, unable to break through after multiple attempts. This market is like a weak person climbing a slope, at any moment they could slip and roll down. Once the 2884 step below collapses, the speed of the drop could be terrifying.
News analysis: The big player has secretly turned around.
Look at what those whales are doing, it’s more practical than listening to any rumors. That 'BTC OG insider whale' has nearly 40 million dollars in unrealized losses, unable to move, as if welded to the vehicle. Meanwhile, another smart 'pension fund whale' has quietly taken profits on BTC long positions and opened a 74 million ETH short position. Isn't this signal clear enough? Big funds feel it's too difficult to go up and have started betting on a decline. If we retail investors rush in at this time, it's likely we're just picking up the big players' positions.
Xinying said: prolonged stagnation must lead to a drop, the risk is greater than the opportunity.
My judgment is simple: in this kind of stagnation where there is no volume and no strength, it's 90% likely to be a 'pre-drop' rather than a 'pre-rise'. The active money in the market is limited and can't push the index. Expecting it to suddenly surge above 3000 with a big bullish candle? Too difficult. The greater probability is that it will just drag on, exhausting the last bit of patience, and then a bearish candle will directly break through. The next level to watch is not 2880 anymore, but the deeper pit at 2800.
Here's some real talk for you: Three types of people, three ways of living.
For those holding coins (positions stuck): Now is not the time to uphold 'belief'. If your positions are too heavy and you can't sleep well at night, then take advantage of every bounce to the 2960-2980 range to reduce some. Set a clear bottom line for yourself, for instance, if it falls below 2860, decisively stop-loss, don't let a small wound turn into a big hole.
For those holding only USDT (empty positions watching): Control your hands, you are the winner. Now is absolutely not the time to bottom fish. The real opportunity is to either wait for it to surge above 3000 with volume and stabilize, or wait for it to drop thoroughly and panic sell before acting. Going in now is mostly just buying loneliness and discomfort.
For those with small positions (light positions testing): If you really can't help but act, just use a bit of pocket money to play the range with high sell and low buy, and you must set a stop-loss reflexively. Remember, the goal now is not to make a big profit, but to preserve your principal and be alive to see the next big opportunity.
The market always changes its face when everyone lets their guard down. Right now, this market seems quiet, but the air is filled with tension. If you're nervously watching your positions or holding USDT not knowing when to act, it indicates your intuition is already sounding the alarm.
I am Xinying, not into fluff, only discussing the hardest market conditions and the most practical strategies. If you are still confused about where to defend and where to attack next, feel free to chat with me. Don't forget, the sideways market is about to end, and whether it goes up or down, every decision you make relates to the real money in your pocket.#ETH走势分析
