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Japan's🇯🇵 Future Interest Rate Path and Market Impact：
#美国非农数据超预期

‌Policy Outlook‌：If economic data meets expectations, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates every six months, potentially increasing rates in June 2026, January 2027, and July, with a terminal rate expected to reach 1.25%. Governor Ueda emphasized that the pace of rate hikes will depend on economic responses, aiming to avoid aggressive tightening.‌‌

‌Market Reactions‌：
‌Exchange Rates and Assets‌：Expectations of a rate hike in Japan have already strengthened the yen, which could alleviate depreciation pressure if realized; however, a weak yen combined with rising rates may increase corporate costs and impact consumer confidence.‌‌

‌Global Spillover Effects‌：A rate hike in Japan could intensify capital repatriation, putting pressure on emerging market stock markets, but the direct impact on the Chinese stock market is limited, necessitating attention to the risks of policy linkage between China and the US.

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