【December 17 Market News and Data Analysis】

1. Goldman Sachs: #Fed may be more aggressive in rate cuts next year, non-farm payrolls are no longer the primary indicator;

2. #Japan Economic recovery is accelerating, and strong exports have increased the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates;

3. #research : The market is generally bullish for 2026, but the data does not support this optimistic expectation;

4. Data: The current drop of #BTC is a structural deleveraging event, rather than a collapse in fundamental demand.

As the year-end approaches, asset managers are beginning to reassess their positions in Bitcoin while maintaining their established allocation ratios. Previously, Bitcoin lagged behind the #SPX 500 index in the first quarter, rebounded in the second quarter, and then retraced again at the beginning of the third quarter; as of this fourth quarter, its performance is still about 26% lower than the S&P 500. This significant relative gap may lead many fund managers with Bitcoin allocation targets to make substantial adjustments before the year-end, anticipating significant capital inflows on the last trading day or even early next year.

However, market sentiment remains cautious. CME Bitcoin futures positions have dropped to about 124,000 contracts, perpetual contract funding rates are trending neutral, and spot trading volume has also seen about a 12% decline, indicating a lack of directional confidence in the short term. If large-scale rebalancing occurs, Bitcoin may see price support from capital inflows in the short term; but if institutional positions remain low after rebalancing, the market's aversion to new risks may continue to suppress its upward potential, resulting in overall cryptocurrency volatility remaining relatively low.