This image is pure marketing narrative, not real analysis. Let’s break it down clearly and realistically.

What the post is claiming

AVAX launched under ~$5 → ran to $146 (~30x)

Therefore SUI (ATH ~$5.5) could do $50+

Implication: “Don’t miss the next AVAX”

This is a classic cycle comparison trick.

Why AVAX ≠ SUI (important differences)

1️⃣ Launch & Token Distribution

AVAX (2020)

Much smaller initial float

Lower VC unlock pressure early

Entered during early DeFi boom

SUI (2023)

Heavy VC allocation

Ongoing unlock schedules

Significantly higher circulating supply growth

👉 This alone caps upside compared to AVAX.

2️⃣ Market Conditions

AVAX ran in a low-cap altcoin environment

SUI is launching in a much more saturated L1 market

Capital is fragmented across:

ETH L2s

Modular chains

AI narratives

Memecoins

30x moves are harder now, not easier.

3️⃣ Valuation Reality

For SUI to hit $50+, it would need:

Market cap comparable to ETH killers at peak mania

Sustained ecosystem adoption (TVL, users, fees)

Perfect macro + full altseason rotation

Possible? Yes Probable? No

What SUI actually is

Strong tech

Fast execution

VC-backed narrative L1

Good mid-cycle performer, not guaranteed “life-changing”

Think:

2x–5x realistic

10x requires full altseason + hype

30x is fantasy-level without massive supply burns or paradigm shift

The real takeaway

⚠️ Never buy because “it did it last cycle”

Markets don’t repeat — they dilute.

If you want, I can:

Do a proper SUI/USDT technical analysis (your preferred script style)

Compare SUI vs SOL vs AVAX objectively

Break down unlock schedules & supply pressure

Just tell me what you want next.