RATE DECISION THIS WEEK IS ALMOST LOCKED IN
Polymarket is pricing a 98% probability of a 25 bps BoJ rate hike, taking Japan’s policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995.
Why this matters: • Higher Japan rates strengthen the JPY
• Yen carry trades begin to unwind
• Global dollar liquidity tightens
• Risk assets come under pressure
Bitcoin’s history during BoJ tightening is brutal: • March 2024: −23%
• July 2024: −26%
• January 2025: −31%
The hike itself isn’t the real risk. Guidance is.
How fast Japan moves next will decide everything.
So here’s the real question: Was the recent dump the final shakeout… or is the next leg down still loading?
$BTC
